Saturday, 16 December 2017

Using your 5km time to predict 100 mile finish times - Part 2



A extension to this post http://76thmile.blogspot.co.uk/2017/12/using-your-5km-time-to-predict-your-100.html was to combine it with this one http://76thmile.blogspot.co.uk/2017/02/hardest-itra-races-why-killians-2241.html to give these tables.

Some of the predicted finish times are greater than the cut-off times for the race. This also completely spurious based on the multipliers involves (20 minutes vs over two days in some cases). The multiplier was about 10% higher for women based on a spuriously small sample but I have used this to create the two tables.

I would be interested to see how accurate (or not) they are.

Race \ 5km PB (Men) 17:00    18:00     19:00     20:00     21:00     22:30     24:30    
Centurion Autumn 100 18:44 19:51 20:57 22:03 23:09 24:48 27:01
Brazos Bend 100 - 100M 18:49 19:56 21:02 22:09 23:15 24:55 27:08
Centurion Thames Path 100 18:52 19:58 21:05 22:12 23:18 24:58 27:11
Rocky Raccoon - 100 Mile 18:52 19:58 21:05 22:12 23:18 24:58 27:11
Centurion South Downs Way 100 19:31 20:40 21:49 22:58 24:07 25:51 28:08
Javelina Jundred - 100 Miles 20:09 21:20 22:31 23:42 24:53 26:40 29:02
West Highland Way Race 20:19 21:30 22:42 23:54 25:05 26:53 29:16
Oman Desert Marathon 20:53 22:07 23:21 24:34 25:48 27:39 30:06
Centurion North Downs Way 100 21:16 22:31 23:46 25:01 26:16 28:08 30:38
White Rose Ultra - 100 Mile 22:15 23:34 24:52 26:11 27:29 29:27 32:04
Cotswold Way Century-100 Miles 22:25 23:44 25:03 26:22 27:41 29:40 32:18
Thunder Rock 23:37 25:00 26:23 27:47 29:10 31:15 34:02
Western States Endurance Run 23:42 25:05 26:29 27:53 29:16 31:22 34:09
Pinhoti 100 - Pinhoti 100 Miles 24:06 25:32 26:57 28:22 29:47 31:55 34:45
Chimera 100 - Chimera 100 Miles 24:11 25:37 27:02 28:28 29:53 32:01 34:52
Hardmoors - 110 Miles 24:26 25:53 27:19 28:45 30:11 32:21 35:13
Zion - 100 Mile 24:31 25:58 27:24 28:51 30:18 32:27 35:21
Leadville Trail 100 Run 25:08 26:37 28:06 29:35 31:03 33:17 36:14
Cascade Crest 100 Mile 26:30 28:04 29:37 31:11 32:44 35:05 38:12
Grindstone 100 26:30 28:04 29:37 31:11 32:44 35:05 38:12
Lakeland - Lakeland 100 26:43 28:17 29:51 31:25 33:00 35:21 38:30
Run Rabbit Run 100 26:57 28:33 30:08 31:43 33:18 35:41 38:51
Bear 100 27:00 28:35 30:11 31:46 33:21 35:44 38:55
Arc Of Attrition 100 Mile 27:20 28:56 30:33 32:09 33:46 36:10 39:23
Bighorn Trail Run - 100M 27:32 29:09 30:47 32:24 34:01 36:27 39:41
100 Miles Of Istria - 100 Miles 27:42 29:20 30:58 32:35 34:13 36:40 39:55
Le Marathon Des Sables 29:43 31:28 33:13 34:58 36:43 39:21 42:50
Hurt 100 Mile Endurance Run 30:33 32:21 34:09 35:57 37:44 40:26 44:02
Ultra-Trail Mt. Fuji - Utmf 31:13 33:03 34:53 36:43 38:33 41:19 44:59
100 Miles Sud De France 32:37 34:32 36:27 38:22 40:17 43:10 47:00
Utmb® 33:17 35:14 37:11 39:09 41:06 44:03 47:58
Ehunmilak Ultra-Trail® 33:54 35:53 37:53 39:53 41:52 44:52 48:51
Le Grand Raid De La Réunion 36:22 38:31 40:39 42:48 44:56 48:09 52:25
Hardrock 100 Endurance Run 36:40 38:49 40:59 43:08 45:17 48:31 52:50
Montane Spine Challenger 37:22 39:34 41:46 43:57 46:09 49:27 53:51
Andorra Ronda Dels Cims 43:09 45:41 48:13 50:46 53:18 57:06 62:11


Race \ 5km PB (Women) 17:00    18:00    19:00    20:00    21:00    22:30    24:30    
Centurion Autumn 100 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:30 24:31
Brazos Bend 100 - 100M 17:05 18:05 19:05 20:06 21:06 22:36 24:37
Centurion Thames Path 100 17:07 18:07 19:08 20:08 21:09 22:39 24:40
Rocky Raccoon - 100 Mile 17:07 18:07 19:08 20:08 21:09 22:39 24:40
Centurion South Downs Way 100 17:43 18:46 19:48 20:51 21:53 23:27 25:32
Javelina Jundred - 100 Miles 18:17 19:21 20:26 21:30 22:35 24:12 26:21
West Highland Way Race 18:26 19:31 20:36 21:41 22:46 24:24 26:34
Oman Desert Marathon 18:57 20:04 21:11 22:18 23:25 25:05 27:19
Centurion North Downs Way 100 19:17 20:25 21:34 22:42 23:50 25:32 27:48
White Rose Ultra - 100 Mile 20:11 21:23 22:34 23:45 24:56 26:43 29:06
Cotswold Way Century-100 Miles 20:20 21:32 22:44 23:56 25:08 26:55 29:19
Thunder Rock 21:26 22:41 23:57 25:12 26:28 28:22 30:53
Western States Endurance Run 21:30 22:46 24:02 25:18 26:34 28:28 30:59
Pinhoti 100 - Pinhoti 100 Miles 21:53 23:10 24:27 25:44 27:01 28:57 31:32
Chimera 100 - Chimera 100 Miles 21:57 23:15 24:32 25:50 27:07 29:03 31:38
Hardmoors - 110 Miles 22:11 23:29 24:47 26:05 27:24 29:21 31:58
Zion - 100 Mile 22:15 23:34 24:52 26:11 27:29 29:27 32:04
Leadville Trail 100 Run 22:49 24:09 25:30 26:50 28:11 30:12 32:53
Cascade Crest 100 Mile 24:03 25:28 26:53 28:18 29:43 31:50 34:40
Grindstone 100 24:03 25:28 26:53 28:18 29:43 31:50 34:40
Lakeland - Lakeland 100 24:14 25:40 27:05 28:31 29:56 32:05 34:56
Run Rabbit Run 100 24:28 25:54 27:20 28:47 30:13 32:23 35:15
Bear 100 24:30 25:56 27:23 28:49 30:16 32:26 35:19
Arc Of Attrition 100 Mile 24:48 26:15 27:43 29:11 30:38 32:49 35:45
Bighorn Trail Run - 100M 24:59 26:27 27:56 29:24 30:52 33:04 36:01
100 Miles Of Istria - 100 Miles 25:08 26:37 28:06 29:34 31:03 33:16 36:14
Le Marathon Des Sables 26:58 28:34 30:09 31:44 33:19 35:42 38:52
Hurt 100 Mile Endurance Run 27:43 29:21 30:59 32:37 34:15 36:42 39:57
Ultra-Trail Mt. Fuji - Utmf 28:19 29:59 31:39 33:19 34:59 37:29 40:49
100 Miles Sud De France 29:36 31:20 33:05 34:49 36:34 39:10 42:39
Utmb® 30:12 31:58 33:45 35:31 37:18 39:58 43:31
Ehunmilak Ultra-Trail® 30:45 32:34 34:23 36:11 38:00 40:43 44:20
Le Grand Raid De La Réunion 33:00 34:57 36:53 38:50 40:46 43:41 47:34
Hardrock 100 Endurance Run 33:16 35:13 37:11 39:08 41:06 44:02 47:57
Montane Spine Challenger 33:54 35:54 37:54 39:53 41:53 44:53 48:52
Andorra Ronda Dels Cims 39:09 41:27 43:45 46:04 48:22 51:49 56:26

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