A extension to this post http://76thmile.blogspot.co.uk/2017/12/using-your-5km-time-to-predict-your-100.html was to combine it with this one http://76thmile.blogspot.co.uk/2017/02/hardest-itra-races-why-killians-2241.html to give these tables.
Some of the predicted finish times are greater than the cut-off times for the race. This also completely spurious based on the multipliers involves (20 minutes vs over two days in some cases). The multiplier was about 10% higher for women based on a spuriously small sample but I have used this to create the two tables.
I would be interested to see how accurate (or not) they are.
Race \ 5km PB (Men) | 17:00 | 18:00 | 19:00 | 20:00 | 21:00 | 22:30 | 24:30 |
Centurion Autumn 100 | 18:44 | 19:51 | 20:57 | 22:03 | 23:09 | 24:48 | 27:01 |
Brazos Bend 100 - 100M | 18:49 | 19:56 | 21:02 | 22:09 | 23:15 | 24:55 | 27:08 |
Centurion Thames Path 100 | 18:52 | 19:58 | 21:05 | 22:12 | 23:18 | 24:58 | 27:11 |
Rocky Raccoon - 100 Mile | 18:52 | 19:58 | 21:05 | 22:12 | 23:18 | 24:58 | 27:11 |
Centurion South Downs Way 100 | 19:31 | 20:40 | 21:49 | 22:58 | 24:07 | 25:51 | 28:08 |
Javelina Jundred - 100 Miles | 20:09 | 21:20 | 22:31 | 23:42 | 24:53 | 26:40 | 29:02 |
West Highland Way Race | 20:19 | 21:30 | 22:42 | 23:54 | 25:05 | 26:53 | 29:16 |
Oman Desert Marathon | 20:53 | 22:07 | 23:21 | 24:34 | 25:48 | 27:39 | 30:06 |
Centurion North Downs Way 100 | 21:16 | 22:31 | 23:46 | 25:01 | 26:16 | 28:08 | 30:38 |
White Rose Ultra - 100 Mile | 22:15 | 23:34 | 24:52 | 26:11 | 27:29 | 29:27 | 32:04 |
Cotswold Way Century-100 Miles | 22:25 | 23:44 | 25:03 | 26:22 | 27:41 | 29:40 | 32:18 |
Thunder Rock | 23:37 | 25:00 | 26:23 | 27:47 | 29:10 | 31:15 | 34:02 |
Western States Endurance Run | 23:42 | 25:05 | 26:29 | 27:53 | 29:16 | 31:22 | 34:09 |
Pinhoti 100 - Pinhoti 100 Miles | 24:06 | 25:32 | 26:57 | 28:22 | 29:47 | 31:55 | 34:45 |
Chimera 100 - Chimera 100 Miles | 24:11 | 25:37 | 27:02 | 28:28 | 29:53 | 32:01 | 34:52 |
Hardmoors - 110 Miles | 24:26 | 25:53 | 27:19 | 28:45 | 30:11 | 32:21 | 35:13 |
Zion - 100 Mile | 24:31 | 25:58 | 27:24 | 28:51 | 30:18 | 32:27 | 35:21 |
Leadville Trail 100 Run | 25:08 | 26:37 | 28:06 | 29:35 | 31:03 | 33:17 | 36:14 |
Cascade Crest 100 Mile | 26:30 | 28:04 | 29:37 | 31:11 | 32:44 | 35:05 | 38:12 |
Grindstone 100 | 26:30 | 28:04 | 29:37 | 31:11 | 32:44 | 35:05 | 38:12 |
Lakeland - Lakeland 100 | 26:43 | 28:17 | 29:51 | 31:25 | 33:00 | 35:21 | 38:30 |
Run Rabbit Run 100 | 26:57 | 28:33 | 30:08 | 31:43 | 33:18 | 35:41 | 38:51 |
Bear 100 | 27:00 | 28:35 | 30:11 | 31:46 | 33:21 | 35:44 | 38:55 |
Arc Of Attrition 100 Mile | 27:20 | 28:56 | 30:33 | 32:09 | 33:46 | 36:10 | 39:23 |
Bighorn Trail Run - 100M | 27:32 | 29:09 | 30:47 | 32:24 | 34:01 | 36:27 | 39:41 |
100 Miles Of Istria - 100 Miles | 27:42 | 29:20 | 30:58 | 32:35 | 34:13 | 36:40 | 39:55 |
Le Marathon Des Sables | 29:43 | 31:28 | 33:13 | 34:58 | 36:43 | 39:21 | 42:50 |
Hurt 100 Mile Endurance Run | 30:33 | 32:21 | 34:09 | 35:57 | 37:44 | 40:26 | 44:02 |
Ultra-Trail Mt. Fuji - Utmf | 31:13 | 33:03 | 34:53 | 36:43 | 38:33 | 41:19 | 44:59 |
100 Miles Sud De France | 32:37 | 34:32 | 36:27 | 38:22 | 40:17 | 43:10 | 47:00 |
Utmb® | 33:17 | 35:14 | 37:11 | 39:09 | 41:06 | 44:03 | 47:58 |
Ehunmilak Ultra-Trail® | 33:54 | 35:53 | 37:53 | 39:53 | 41:52 | 44:52 | 48:51 |
Le Grand Raid De La Réunion | 36:22 | 38:31 | 40:39 | 42:48 | 44:56 | 48:09 | 52:25 |
Hardrock 100 Endurance Run | 36:40 | 38:49 | 40:59 | 43:08 | 45:17 | 48:31 | 52:50 |
Montane Spine Challenger | 37:22 | 39:34 | 41:46 | 43:57 | 46:09 | 49:27 | 53:51 |
Andorra Ronda Dels Cims | 43:09 | 45:41 | 48:13 | 50:46 | 53:18 | 57:06 | 62:11 |
Race \ 5km PB (Women) | 17:00 | 18:00 | 19:00 | 20:00 | 21:00 | 22:30 | 24:30 |
Centurion Autumn 100 | 17:00 | 18:00 | 19:00 | 20:00 | 21:00 | 22:30 | 24:31 |
Brazos Bend 100 - 100M | 17:05 | 18:05 | 19:05 | 20:06 | 21:06 | 22:36 | 24:37 |
Centurion Thames Path 100 | 17:07 | 18:07 | 19:08 | 20:08 | 21:09 | 22:39 | 24:40 |
Rocky Raccoon - 100 Mile | 17:07 | 18:07 | 19:08 | 20:08 | 21:09 | 22:39 | 24:40 |
Centurion South Downs Way 100 | 17:43 | 18:46 | 19:48 | 20:51 | 21:53 | 23:27 | 25:32 |
Javelina Jundred - 100 Miles | 18:17 | 19:21 | 20:26 | 21:30 | 22:35 | 24:12 | 26:21 |
West Highland Way Race | 18:26 | 19:31 | 20:36 | 21:41 | 22:46 | 24:24 | 26:34 |
Oman Desert Marathon | 18:57 | 20:04 | 21:11 | 22:18 | 23:25 | 25:05 | 27:19 |
Centurion North Downs Way 100 | 19:17 | 20:25 | 21:34 | 22:42 | 23:50 | 25:32 | 27:48 |
White Rose Ultra - 100 Mile | 20:11 | 21:23 | 22:34 | 23:45 | 24:56 | 26:43 | 29:06 |
Cotswold Way Century-100 Miles | 20:20 | 21:32 | 22:44 | 23:56 | 25:08 | 26:55 | 29:19 |
Thunder Rock | 21:26 | 22:41 | 23:57 | 25:12 | 26:28 | 28:22 | 30:53 |
Western States Endurance Run | 21:30 | 22:46 | 24:02 | 25:18 | 26:34 | 28:28 | 30:59 |
Pinhoti 100 - Pinhoti 100 Miles | 21:53 | 23:10 | 24:27 | 25:44 | 27:01 | 28:57 | 31:32 |
Chimera 100 - Chimera 100 Miles | 21:57 | 23:15 | 24:32 | 25:50 | 27:07 | 29:03 | 31:38 |
Hardmoors - 110 Miles | 22:11 | 23:29 | 24:47 | 26:05 | 27:24 | 29:21 | 31:58 |
Zion - 100 Mile | 22:15 | 23:34 | 24:52 | 26:11 | 27:29 | 29:27 | 32:04 |
Leadville Trail 100 Run | 22:49 | 24:09 | 25:30 | 26:50 | 28:11 | 30:12 | 32:53 |
Cascade Crest 100 Mile | 24:03 | 25:28 | 26:53 | 28:18 | 29:43 | 31:50 | 34:40 |
Grindstone 100 | 24:03 | 25:28 | 26:53 | 28:18 | 29:43 | 31:50 | 34:40 |
Lakeland - Lakeland 100 | 24:14 | 25:40 | 27:05 | 28:31 | 29:56 | 32:05 | 34:56 |
Run Rabbit Run 100 | 24:28 | 25:54 | 27:20 | 28:47 | 30:13 | 32:23 | 35:15 |
Bear 100 | 24:30 | 25:56 | 27:23 | 28:49 | 30:16 | 32:26 | 35:19 |
Arc Of Attrition 100 Mile | 24:48 | 26:15 | 27:43 | 29:11 | 30:38 | 32:49 | 35:45 |
Bighorn Trail Run - 100M | 24:59 | 26:27 | 27:56 | 29:24 | 30:52 | 33:04 | 36:01 |
100 Miles Of Istria - 100 Miles | 25:08 | 26:37 | 28:06 | 29:34 | 31:03 | 33:16 | 36:14 |
Le Marathon Des Sables | 26:58 | 28:34 | 30:09 | 31:44 | 33:19 | 35:42 | 38:52 |
Hurt 100 Mile Endurance Run | 27:43 | 29:21 | 30:59 | 32:37 | 34:15 | 36:42 | 39:57 |
Ultra-Trail Mt. Fuji - Utmf | 28:19 | 29:59 | 31:39 | 33:19 | 34:59 | 37:29 | 40:49 |
100 Miles Sud De France | 29:36 | 31:20 | 33:05 | 34:49 | 36:34 | 39:10 | 42:39 |
Utmb® | 30:12 | 31:58 | 33:45 | 35:31 | 37:18 | 39:58 | 43:31 |
Ehunmilak Ultra-Trail® | 30:45 | 32:34 | 34:23 | 36:11 | 38:00 | 40:43 | 44:20 |
Le Grand Raid De La Réunion | 33:00 | 34:57 | 36:53 | 38:50 | 40:46 | 43:41 | 47:34 |
Hardrock 100 Endurance Run | 33:16 | 35:13 | 37:11 | 39:08 | 41:06 | 44:02 | 47:57 |
Montane Spine Challenger | 33:54 | 35:54 | 37:54 | 39:53 | 41:53 | 44:53 | 48:52 |
Andorra Ronda Dels Cims | 39:09 | 41:27 | 43:45 | 46:04 | 48:22 | 51:49 | 56:26 |
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