I have an ITRA ranking of 495 ( https://itra.run/community/david.stuart/646114// ). You can find yours here ( https://itra.run/community/ ). An explanation of the rankings are here: http://76thmile.blogspot.com/2017/02/hardest-itra-races-why-killians-2241.html
Back when I reverse engineered the ITRA rankings, I predicted a UTMB finish time of 39 hours based on my ranking (it was 489 back then).
I pulled out the rankings for roughly 100 finishers of the 2018 UTMB. I looked at the XL ranking because a) The 2018 UTMB would be included in the XXL ranking so the prediction would be somewhat circular b) I don't have an XXL ranking
Ranking is reasonable predictive but with quite a lot of variance. The ITRA predictions are pretty good but there are quite a few highly ranked runners who finished much slower than predicted.
My ranking of 495 would put me roughly in the middle of the finishers in roughly 39 hours. A few important notes:
- I have only looked at the men's results as the women use a slightly different system. I'm sure there is an easy conversion
- I have only looked at finishers. I suspect the drop out rate for lower ranked runners is way lower than mid to high ranked (excluding the elite racers). A better athlete having a bad day might finish in a slow time but the lower ranked runner would be timed out.
It would be interesting to do this analysis if I had the data.
Here is the table form of the results. I only sampled 100 or so. I would need a few more to smooth out the volatility (some higher ranked groups have slower time due to small sample size).
| Rank | Time | Position | Percentile |
| 650 | 34:06 | 325 | 18% |
| 625 | 33:46 | 332 | 19% |
| 600 | 34:12 | 312 | 18% |
| 575 | 36:19 | 431 | 24% |
| 550 | 35:24 | 399 | 22% |
| 525 | 37:05 | 496 | 28% |
| 500 | 39:05 | 669 | 38% |
| 475 | 41:58 | 1,036 | 58% |
| 450 | 43:36 | 1,260 | 71% |
| 425 | 45:06 | 1,497 | 84% |
| 400 | 45:33 | 1,592 | 90% |
| 375 | 45:35 | 1,614 | 91% |
