Thursday, 14 November 2019

UTMB - pointless statistics and analysis

My UTMB ended just after Arnuvaz. I was interested to see the DNF stats to see how I compared. I was interested to see how the DNF rates compared by a few different characteristics too. I will leave the reader to leap to conclusions. I used those who made it Les Houches as my start list to exclude any DNSs.

Is name a factor in finishing? Absolutely. The most common finishing name was David. Unfortunately I pulled down the finish rate somewhat. Guillaume is by far the best name to have though with all but one of the 19 starters finishing. The only Guillaume I know is Mr Arthus who is quite a handy runner. Patrick isn't such a good name with only 38% finishing.

Name Start count Finish rate
David 39 61.5%
Nicolas 28 57.1%
Julien 24 75.0%
Laurent 23 56.5%
Olivier 22 77.3%
Pierre 22 72.7%
Philippe 21 57.1%
Christophe 21 52.4%
Guillaume 19 94.7%
Stephane 17 47.1%
Sebastien 17 70.6%
Michael 16 50.0%
Frederic 16 81.3%
Thomas 15 73.3%
Daniel 15 53.3%
Franck 14 71.4%
Patrick 13 38.5%
Pascal 13 69.2%
Thierry 12 66.7%
Vincent 12 66.7%
S├ębastien 12 58.3%
Michel 12 66.7%
Eric 12 66.7%
Matthieu 11 63.6%
Mathieu 11 72.7%
Anthony 11 81.8%
Antoine 11 81.8%
Alexandre 11 63.6%
Andrew 11 54.5%
Benoit 11 72.7%
Sylvain 10 60.0%
Martin 10 50.0%
Jerome 10 70.0%
Marco 10 50.0%
Christian 10 40.0%

Unsurprisingly, France has by far the highest number of starters. The finishing rate is quite high at 63%. The non-French finishing rate is 57% and the overall is 59%.  Sweden has the highest finishing rate of countries above 20 starters. Hong Kong the lowest.

Country Starters Finish rate
FR 894 62.9%
ES 204 55.4%
IT 180 52.8%
JP 168 52.4%
GB 142 53.5%
CN 135 51.9%
US 93 63.4%
PL 89 62.9%
HK 80 45.0%
PT 52 69.2%
CH 52 59.6%
DE 47 63.8%
BE 45 68.9%
CA 37 62.2%
AR 26 53.8%
SE 25 80.0%
AU 25 64.0%
RO 20 35.0%

The splits by category were interesting. Most likely to finish were Men (H) under 40. Women were 6% less likely to finish than men. Women made up less than 10% of starters but 12.3% of the under 40 category. 

Category Starters Finish rate
SE F 89 61.8%
SE H 724 64.9%
V1 F 109 55.0%
V1 H 1035 62.0%
V2 F 45 33.3%
V2 H 465 50.5%
V3 F 5 80.0%
V3 H 70 34.3%
V4 H 4 0.0%

F all 248 54.0%
H all 2294 59.8%
Grand Total254659.1%

DNF by section was interesting. Arnouvaz to La Fouly took out the most per km including me. It is the start of the second evening for the tail of the race and also coincided with a massive thunderstorm this year. I made it further than most DNFs with 75% not making it to La Fouly for the cut off.

Aid station Still in DNFs Distance DNF per km
Les Houches 2540 0 8             N/A
St Gervais 2534 6 21 0.46
Contamines 2497 43 31 3.70
La Blame 2428 112 39 8.63
Les Chapieux 2383 157 50 4.09
Lac Combal 2287 253 65 6.40
Courmayer 2203 337 78 6.46
Courmayer exit 2098 442 78            N/A
Arnouvaz 1939 601 95 9.35
La Fouly 1803 737 109 9.71
Champex 1684 856 123 8.50
Trient 1607 933 140 4.53
Finish 1555 985 170 1.73

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