I have created a pacing chart based on the average time finishers made it through each checkpoint. It doesn't format well so I have put it in a separate post.
I've looked at the DNFs by checkpoint but was curious to see if the drops were an even slice through the field or just the back of the field being systematically picked off by the cut offs.
| Aid station | Still in | DNFs | Distance | DNF per k | Finish P |
| Les Houches | 2540 | 0 | 8 | 61% | |
| St Gervais | 2534 | 6 | 21 | 0.46 | 61% |
| Contamines | 2497 | 43 | 31 | 3.70 | 62% |
| La Blame | 2428 | 112 | 39 | 8.63 | 64% |
| Les Chapieux | 2383 | 157 | 50 | 4.09 | 65% |
| Lac Combal | 2287 | 253 | 65 | 6.40 | 68% |
| Courmayer | 2203 | 337 | 78 | 6.46 | 71% |
| Courmayer exit | 2098 | 442 | 78 | 74% | |
| Arnouvaz | 1939 | 601 | 95 | 9.35 | 80% |
| La Fouly | 1803 | 737 | 109 | 9.71 | 86% |
| Champex | 1684 | 856 | 123 | 8.50 | 92% |
| Trient | 1607 | 933 | 140 | 4.53 | 97% |
| Finish | 1555 | 985 | 170 | 1.73 | 100% |
These graphs are all in the same format. X-axis is the time of arrival at checkpoint. Y-axis is the probability of going on to finish. As the race goes on, it converges to 100%.
Checkpoint 1 shows an interesting pattern. First runners through we less likely to finish. The Elites in the race have a much higher drop rate. Mid packers have the best rate with those at the back least likely to finish.
I made it through in 57 minutes which is roughly 50% chance of finishing. There is no cut off at the aid station. My chart has 54 minutes as the typical split for someone finishing after 46 hours.
Same pattern again. There is a sharp drop off at about 3:20. The cut-off is 4:00. I made it through in 3:20. About 30% of those who arrived at about the same time finished.
This CP has a big drop off in finishing odds - almost linearly between 3 hours and 4 hours. My chart has 3:12 as the typical split for someone finishing after 46 hours.
5:20 - up to a 40% chance now. My chart has 5:10 as the typical split for someone finishing after 46 hours.
7:10- up to a 60% chance now. My chart also has 7:10 as the typical split for someone finishing after 46 hours.
9:58 - down to a 60% chance now. I was pretty slow over the Col Du Bonhomme. My chart also has 9:55 as the typical split for someone finishing after 46 hours.
14:58 still at 60% chance now. My chart also has 14:48 as the typical split for someone finishing after 46 hours.
18:06 somewhere between 40% and 60%. My chart also has 17:57 as the typical split for someone finishing after 46 hours.
18:30 up to 65%. A lot of people dropped here so getting out of the aid station improves your chance a lot. The trend for those near the cutoff to have massively lower chances of finishing had reduced.
23:30. Up to a race high of 75% compared with the field average of 80%.
I dropped about an hour later on the upper reaches of Colin the Ferret. My chart has 23:22 so I was still sufficiently clear of cut offs. Maybe I should have carried on through the thunderstorm and over into Switzerland...
Odds have greatly improved at La Fouly. Getting here in 27:36 was typical - being an hour up on cut-offs was plenty
By Champex, all expect those within an hour of cut off had roughly the same chance of finishing (92%).
