Saturday, 1 September 2018

KACR 145 - race analysis

I was curious to see how to see how my pacing compared with everyone else on the Kennet and Avon canal race. I felt I had started off with a measured pace and was going fairly well until the downpour at Henley. My best section was 60 to 86.5 where I had a buddy runner from roughly 66 to 78 or so.

I've pulled together a few stats to see how I did compare with everyone else. This involved hand typing the timing sheets so might be some typos in the raw data. I have done this for my own benefit but hopefully it will be interesting or useful. The pace stats might also be relevant for the GUCR.

Tables
- Drop out rates
- Cumulative splits
- Ranking at each checkpoint
- Incremental splits
- Rankings by section
- Average pace analysis
- Slow down rankings
- Grossed up splits

Drop out rates

Mile 27.2 60 86.5 102.6 145
Still in race 59 48 37 34 33
Drop prob 0.0% 18.6% 22.9% 8.1% 2.9%
Drop prob/mile 0.0000 0.0069 0.0070 0.0031 0.0018

Everyone made past the marathon point but then the drops started. My stats aren't 100% accurate as I don't know exactly when people dropped (e.g. at the checkpoint or shortly after). However it seems the vast majority happened between 27 and 85.6 and only one in the 43 miles. 

Cumulative splits by section

These are from the timing sheets posted on the KACR facebook page. It is worth having a look as each runner has an official observation made about them.

27.2 60 86.5 102.6 145
112fabio 3:43 8:54 14:13 17:54 28:49
106mich 4:06 10:33 16:20 20:20 30:10
48pete 4:12 11:08 17:35 21:25 31:20
2james 3:57 9:58 16:07 20:10 31:58
55stu 3:52 10:31 16:10 20:20 32:37
113wendy 4:39 11:08 17:20 21:20 32:46
3david 4:24 11:46 18:30 22:45 33:30
34helen 4:38 12:12 18:30 22:45 33:30
46darren 4:18 11:06 17:10 21:36 34:03
43chris 5:02 12:20 18:45 22:43 34:03
13james 4:12 11:37 18:23 22:55 35:17
25ian 4:24 12:14 19:13 23:40 35:22
53michael 5:13 12:31 20:17 24:58 35:55
108rhys 4:24 11:55 19:40 25:25 36:06
33andy 4:51 12:18 19:03 24:27 36:08
14natasha 4:30 11:35 18:23 22:55 36:25
5mark 4:25 12:11 19:37 24:28 36:48
47david 5:02 12:27 19:03 23:45 37:43
51rod 4:30 12:53 20:12 24:56 38:07
103phil 4:57 12:59 20:46 25:58 38:32
54carl 4:20 12:26 20:12 25:24 39:19
39grahame 5:10 13:13 21:05 26:32 40:52
4javed 5:17 14:56 24:09 28:16 41:16
9mark 4:39 12:37 20:17 24:50 41:40
10jan 5:34 13:50 21:53 27:08 42:27
21andy 5:27 14:34 24:52 29:23 42:42
50georgina 5:02 13:13 21:10 27:20 42:47
38allan 5:47 15:08 24:14 29:23 42:51
30fiona 5:27 14:20 23:15 28:34 43:17
52robert 5:27 14:20 23:15 28:34 43:17
1nicole 5:25 13:44 22:26 28:26 43:52
102ed 5:22 14:33 23:24 28:53 44:19
45bruce 4:51 13:40 22:39 28:25 44:31

Ranking by checkpoint

I made up places up until 102.6 and then I struggled on day 2. Michael and Rhys picked up massively on day 2...

27.2 60 86.5 102.6 145
112fabio 1 1 1 1 1
106mich 4 4 4 3 2
48pete 5 6 7 6 3
2james 3 2 2 2 4
55stu 2 3 3 3 5
113wendy 16 6 6 5 6
3david 9 10 10 9 7
34helen 15 13 10 9 7
46darren 7 5 5 7 9
43chris 21 16 12 8 9
13james 5 9 8 11 11
25ian 9 14 15 13 12
53michael 25 19 20 19 13
108rhys 9 11 17 21 14
33andy 18 15 13 15 15
14natasha 13 8 8 11 16
5mark 12 12 16 16 17
47david 21 18 13 14 18
51rod 13 21 18 18 19
103phil 20 22 22 22 20
54carl 8 17 18 20 21
39grahame 24 23 23 23 22
4javed 26 32 31 26 23
9mark 16 20 20 17 24
10jan 32 27 25 24 25
21andy 29 31 33 32 26
50georgina 21 23 24 25 27
38allan 33 33 32 32 28
30fiona 29 28 28 29 29
52robert 29 28 28 29 29
1nicole 28 26 26 28 31
102ed 27 30 30 31 32
45bruce 18 25 27 27 33

Incremental splits

27.2 60 86.5 102.6 145
112fabio 3:43 5:11 5:19 3:41 10:55
106mich 4:06 6:27 5:47 4:00 9:50
48pete 4:12 6:56 6:27 3:50 9:55
2james 3:57 6:01 6:09 4:03 11:48
55stu 3:52 6:39 5:39 4:10 12:17
113wendy 4:39 6:29 6:12 4:00 11:26
3david 4:24 7:22 6:44 4:15 10:45
34helen 4:38 7:34 6:18 4:15 10:45
46darren 4:18 6:48 6:04 4:26 12:27
43chris 5:02 7:18 6:25 3:58 11:20
13james 4:12 7:25 6:46 4:32 12:22
25ian 4:24 7:50 6:59 4:27 11:42
53michael 5:13 7:18 7:46 4:41 10:57
108rhys 4:24 7:31 7:45 5:45 10:41
33andy 4:51 7:27 6:45 5:24 11:41
14natasha 4:30 7:05 6:48 4:32 13:30
5mark 4:25 7:46 7:26 4:51 12:20
47david 5:02 7:25 6:36 4:42 13:58
51rod 4:30 8:23 7:19 4:44 13:11
103phil 4:57 8:02 7:47 5:12 12:34
54carl 4:20 8:06 7:46 5:12 13:55
39grahame 5:10 8:03 7:52 5:27 14:20
4javed 5:17 9:39 9:13 4:07 13:00
9mark 4:39 7:58 7:40 4:33 16:50
10jan 5:34 8:16 8:03 5:15 15:19
21andy 5:27 9:07 10:18 4:31 13:19
50georgina 5:02 8:11 7:57 6:10 15:27
38allan 5:47 9:21 9:06 5:09 13:28
30fiona 5:27 8:53 8:55 5:19 14:43
52robert 5:27 8:53 8:55 5:19 14:43
1nicole 5:25 8:19 8:42 6:00 15:26
102ed 5:22 9:11 8:51 5:29 15:26
45bruce 4:51 8:49 8:59 5:46 16:06


Ranking by section

My best section was 60 to 86.5. Worst was 102.6 to the end.

27.2 60 86.5 102.6 145
112fabio 1 1 1 1 6
106mich 4 3 3 5 1
48pete 5 7 9 2 2
2james 3 2 5 6 12
55stu 2 5 2 8 13
113wendy 16 4 6 4 9
3david 9 11 11 9 4
34helen 15 16 7 9 4
46darren 7 6 4 11 16
43chris 21 10 8 3 8
13james 5 13 13 14 15
25ian 9 18 15 12 11
53michael 25 9 20 17 7
108rhys 9 15 19 30 3
33andy 18 14 12 27 10
14natasha 13 8 14 14 22
5mark 12 17 17 20 14
47david 21 12 10 18 24
51rod 13 26 16 19 19
103phil 20 20 22 22 17
54carl 8 22 20 22 23
39grahame 24 21 23 28 25
4javed 26 33 32 7 18
9mark 16 19 18 16 33
10jan 32 24 25 24 28
21andy 29 30 33 13 20
50georgina 21 23 24 33 31
38allan 33 32 31 21 21
30fiona 29 28 28 25 26
52robert 29 28 28 25 26
1nicole 28 25 26 32 29
102ed 27 31 27 29 30
45bruce 18 27 30 31 32


Pace by section

Everyone ran the last third considerably slower than the first 27 miles. The fastest for the last section is roughly equal to brisk walking pace.

27.2 60 86.5 102.6 145
Top 11 0:09:26 0:12:20 0:13:58 0:15:18 0:15:56
Middle 11 0:10:23 0:14:07 0:16:38 0:18:37 0:17:51
Bottom 11 0:11:41 0:16:04 0:19:54 0:19:32 0:21:04
112fabio 0:08:12 0:09:29 0:12:02 0:13:44 0:15:27
106mich 0:09:03 0:11:48 0:13:06 0:14:54 0:13:55
48pete 0:09:16 0:12:41 0:14:36 0:14:17 0:14:02
2james 0:08:43 0:11:00 0:13:55 0:15:06 0:16:42
55stu 0:08:32 0:12:10 0:12:48 0:15:32 0:17:23
113wendy 0:10:15 0:11:52 0:14:02 0:14:54 0:16:11
3david 0:09:42 0:13:29 0:15:15 0:15:50 0:15:13
34helen 0:10:13 0:13:50 0:14:16 0:15:50 0:15:13
46darren 0:09:29 0:12:26 0:13:44 0:16:31 0:17:37
43chris 0:11:06 0:13:21 0:14:32 0:14:47 0:16:02
13james 0:09:16 0:13:34 0:15:19 0:16:54 0:17:30
25ian 0:09:42 0:14:20 0:15:49 0:16:35 0:16:33
53michael 0:11:30 0:13:21 0:17:35 0:17:27 0:15:30
108rhys 0:09:42 0:13:45 0:17:33 0:21:26 0:15:07
33andy 0:10:42 0:13:38 0:15:17 0:20:07 0:16:32
14natasha 0:09:56 0:12:57 0:15:24 0:16:54 0:19:06
5mark 0:09:45 0:14:12 0:16:50 0:18:04 0:17:27
47david 0:11:06 0:13:34 0:14:57 0:17:31 0:19:46
51rod 0:09:56 0:15:20 0:16:34 0:17:38 0:18:39
103phil 0:10:55 0:14:42 0:17:37 0:19:23 0:17:47
54carl 0:09:34 0:14:49 0:17:35 0:19:23 0:19:42
39grahame 0:11:24 0:14:44 0:17:49 0:20:19 0:20:17
4javed 0:11:39 0:17:39 0:20:52 0:15:20 0:18:24
9mark 0:10:15 0:14:34 0:17:22 0:16:57 0:23:49
10jan 0:12:17 0:15:07 0:18:14 0:19:34 0:21:40
21andy 0:12:01 0:16:41 0:23:19 0:16:50 0:18:51
50georgina 0:11:06 0:14:58 0:18:00 0:22:59 0:21:52
38allan 0:12:45 0:17:06 0:20:36 0:19:12 0:19:03
30fiona 0:12:01 0:16:15 0:20:11 0:19:49 0:20:50
52robert 0:12:01 0:16:15 0:20:11 0:19:49 0:20:50
1nicole 0:11:57 0:15:13 0:19:42 0:22:22 0:21:50
102ed 0:11:50 0:16:48 0:20:02 0:20:26 0:21:50
45bruce 0:10:42 0:16:08 0:20:20 0:21:29 0:22:47

Pace analysis

Halfway by time is roughly 84 miles compared with 72.5 miles by distance.

27.2 60 86.5 102.6 145
Top 11 4:16 11:01 17:11 21:17 32:33
Middle 11 4:42 12:25 19:46 24:46 37:23
Bottom 11 5:18 14:05 22:52 28:06 42:59

Top 11

13.1%

33.9%

52.8%

65.4%

100.0%
Middle 11 12.6% 33.2% 52.9% 66.2% 100.0%
Bottom 11 12.3% 32.8% 53.2% 65.4% 100.0%
Pro-rata 18.8% 41.4% 59.7% 70.8% 100.0%

Slow down rankings

Ratio of pace in first 27 miles to last 45 miles. The range is massive. Michael wins - he overtook me at the 116 checkpoint and finished 1:40 ahead of me looking very strong.

Ratio Rank
53michael 1.35 1
43chris 1.44 2
34helen 1.49 3
38allan 1.49 4
48pete 1.51 5
106mich 1.54 6
33andy 1.55 7
108rhys 1.56 8
3david 1.57 9
21andy 1.57 10
113wendy 1.58 11
4javed 1.58 12
103phil 1.63 13
25ian 1.71 14
30fiona 1.73 15
52robert 1.73 15
10jan 1.77 17
39grahame 1.78 18
47david 1.78 19
5mark 1.79 20
1nicole 1.83 21
102ed 1.84 22
46darren 1.86 23
51rod 1.88 24
112fabio 1.88 25
13james 1.89 26
2james 1.92 27
14natasha 1.92 28
50georgina 1.97 29
55stu 2.04 30
54carl 2.06 31
45bruce 2.13 32
9mark 2.32 33


Grossed up incremental splits

The 27 to 60 miles section is roughly 20% on average so if you took 8 hours to do it, you would get 8 / 20% = 40 hours in the 60 mile column. It shows which part of the race which went well and badly. Phil B had very even splits relative to the field with a bit of a pick up for the last third.
27.2 60 86.5 102.6 145
112fabio 29:23 25:10 26:55 29:00 31:48
106mich 32:25 31:20 29:17 31:30 28:38
48pete 33:12 33:41 32:39 30:11 28:53
2james 31:13 29:13 31:08 31:53 34:22
55stu 30:34 32:18 28:36 32:48 35:47
113wendy 36:46 31:29 31:23 31:30 33:18
3david 34:47 35:47 34:06 33:28 31:19
34helen 36:38 36:45 31:54 33:28 31:19
46darren 34:00 33:02 30:43 34:54 36:16
43chris 39:47 35:27 32:29 31:14 33:01
13james 33:12 36:01 34:16 35:42 36:01
25ian 34:47 38:03 35:22 35:02 34:05
53michael 41:14 35:27 39:20 36:52 31:54
108rhys 34:47 36:31 39:14 45:16 31:07
33andy 38:20 36:11 34:11 42:31 34:02
14natasha 35:34 34:24 34:26 35:42 39:19
5mark 34:55 37:43 37:38 38:11 35:55
47david 39:47 36:01 33:25 37:00 40:41
51rod 35:34 40:43 37:03 37:16 38:24
103phil 39:08 39:01 39:25 40:57 36:36
54carl 34:15 39:21 39:20 40:57 40:32
39grahame 40:51 39:06 39:50 42:55 41:45
4javed 41:46 46:52 46:40 32:25 37:52
9mark 36:46 38:42 38:49 35:49 49:02
10jan 44:00 40:09 40:46 41:20 44:37
21andy 43:05 44:17 52:09 35:34 38:47
50georgina 39:47 39:45 40:15 48:33 45:00
38allan 45:43 45:25 46:05 40:33 39:13
30fiona 43:05 43:09 45:09 41:52 42:52
52robert 43:05 43:09 45:09 41:52 42:52
1nicole 42:49 40:24 44:03 47:15 44:57
102ed 42:26 44:36 44:49 43:10 44:57
45bruce 38:20 42:49 45:29 45:24 46:54

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