KACR 145 - race analysis

I was curious to see how to see how my pacing compared with everyone else on the Kennet and Avon canal race. I felt I had started off with a measured pace and was going fairly well until the downpour at Henley. My best section was 60 to 86.5 where I had a buddy runner from roughly 66 to 78 or so.

I've pulled together a few stats to see how I did compare with everyone else. This involved hand typing the timing sheets so might be some typos in the raw data. I have done this for my own benefit but hopefully it will be interesting or useful. The pace stats might also be relevant for the GUCR.

Tables
- Drop out rates
- Cumulative splits
- Ranking at each checkpoint
- Incremental splits
- Rankings by section
- Average pace analysis
- Slow down rankings
- Grossed up splits

Drop out rates

Mile	27.2	60	86.5	102.6	145
Still in race	59	48	37	34	33
Drop prob	0.0%	18.6%	22.9%	8.1%	2.9%
Drop prob/mile	0.0000	0.0069	0.0070	0.0031	0.0018

Everyone made past the marathon point but then the drops started. My stats aren't 100% accurate as I don't know exactly when people dropped (e.g. at the checkpoint or shortly after). However it seems the vast majority happened between 27 and 85.6 and only one in the 43 miles. 

Cumulative splits by section

These are from the timing sheets posted on the KACR facebook page. It is worth having a look as each runner has an official observation made about them.

	27.2	60	86.5	102.6	145
112fabio	3:43	8:54	14:13	17:54	28:49
106mich	4:06	10:33	16:20	20:20	30:10
48pete	4:12	11:08	17:35	21:25	31:20
2james	3:57	9:58	16:07	20:10	31:58
55stu	3:52	10:31	16:10	20:20	32:37
113wendy	4:39	11:08	17:20	21:20	32:46
3david	4:24	11:46	18:30	22:45	33:30
34helen	4:38	12:12	18:30	22:45	33:30
46darren	4:18	11:06	17:10	21:36	34:03
43chris	5:02	12:20	18:45	22:43	34:03
13james	4:12	11:37	18:23	22:55	35:17
25ian	4:24	12:14	19:13	23:40	35:22
53michael	5:13	12:31	20:17	24:58	35:55
108rhys	4:24	11:55	19:40	25:25	36:06
33andy	4:51	12:18	19:03	24:27	36:08
14natasha	4:30	11:35	18:23	22:55	36:25
5mark	4:25	12:11	19:37	24:28	36:48
47david	5:02	12:27	19:03	23:45	37:43
51rod	4:30	12:53	20:12	24:56	38:07
103phil	4:57	12:59	20:46	25:58	38:32
54carl	4:20	12:26	20:12	25:24	39:19
39grahame	5:10	13:13	21:05	26:32	40:52
4javed	5:17	14:56	24:09	28:16	41:16
9mark	4:39	12:37	20:17	24:50	41:40
10jan	5:34	13:50	21:53	27:08	42:27
21andy	5:27	14:34	24:52	29:23	42:42
50georgina	5:02	13:13	21:10	27:20	42:47
38allan	5:47	15:08	24:14	29:23	42:51
30fiona	5:27	14:20	23:15	28:34	43:17
52robert	5:27	14:20	23:15	28:34	43:17
1nicole	5:25	13:44	22:26	28:26	43:52
102ed	5:22	14:33	23:24	28:53	44:19
45bruce	4:51	13:40	22:39	28:25	44:31

Ranking by checkpoint

I made up places up until 102.6 and then I struggled on day 2. Michael and Rhys picked up massively on day 2...

	27.2	60	86.5	102.6	145
112fabio	1	1	1	1	1
106mich	4	4	4	3	2
48pete	5	6	7	6	3
2james	3	2	2	2	4
55stu	2	3	3	3	5
113wendy	16	6	6	5	6
3david	9	10	10	9	7
34helen	15	13	10	9	7
46darren	7	5	5	7	9
43chris	21	16	12	8	9
13james	5	9	8	11	11
25ian	9	14	15	13	12
53michael	25	19	20	19	13
108rhys	9	11	17	21	14
33andy	18	15	13	15	15
14natasha	13	8	8	11	16
5mark	12	12	16	16	17
47david	21	18	13	14	18
51rod	13	21	18	18	19
103phil	20	22	22	22	20
54carl	8	17	18	20	21
39grahame	24	23	23	23	22
4javed	26	32	31	26	23
9mark	16	20	20	17	24
10jan	32	27	25	24	25
21andy	29	31	33	32	26
50georgina	21	23	24	25	27
38allan	33	33	32	32	28
30fiona	29	28	28	29	29
52robert	29	28	28	29	29
1nicole	28	26	26	28	31
102ed	27	30	30	31	32
45bruce	18	25	27	27	33

Incremental splits

	27.2	60	86.5	102.6	145
112fabio	3:43	5:11	5:19	3:41	10:55
106mich	4:06	6:27	5:47	4:00	9:50
48pete	4:12	6:56	6:27	3:50	9:55
2james	3:57	6:01	6:09	4:03	11:48
55stu	3:52	6:39	5:39	4:10	12:17
113wendy	4:39	6:29	6:12	4:00	11:26
3david	4:24	7:22	6:44	4:15	10:45
34helen	4:38	7:34	6:18	4:15	10:45
46darren	4:18	6:48	6:04	4:26	12:27
43chris	5:02	7:18	6:25	3:58	11:20
13james	4:12	7:25	6:46	4:32	12:22
25ian	4:24	7:50	6:59	4:27	11:42
53michael	5:13	7:18	7:46	4:41	10:57
108rhys	4:24	7:31	7:45	5:45	10:41
33andy	4:51	7:27	6:45	5:24	11:41
14natasha	4:30	7:05	6:48	4:32	13:30
5mark	4:25	7:46	7:26	4:51	12:20
47david	5:02	7:25	6:36	4:42	13:58
51rod	4:30	8:23	7:19	4:44	13:11
103phil	4:57	8:02	7:47	5:12	12:34
54carl	4:20	8:06	7:46	5:12	13:55
39grahame	5:10	8:03	7:52	5:27	14:20
4javed	5:17	9:39	9:13	4:07	13:00
9mark	4:39	7:58	7:40	4:33	16:50
10jan	5:34	8:16	8:03	5:15	15:19
21andy	5:27	9:07	10:18	4:31	13:19
50georgina	5:02	8:11	7:57	6:10	15:27
38allan	5:47	9:21	9:06	5:09	13:28
30fiona	5:27	8:53	8:55	5:19	14:43
52robert	5:27	8:53	8:55	5:19	14:43
1nicole	5:25	8:19	8:42	6:00	15:26
102ed	5:22	9:11	8:51	5:29	15:26
45bruce	4:51	8:49	8:59	5:46	16:06

Ranking by section

My best section was 60 to 86.5. Worst was 102.6 to the end.

	27.2	60	86.5	102.6	145
112fabio	1	1	1	1	6
106mich	4	3	3	5	1
48pete	5	7	9	2	2
2james	3	2	5	6	12
55stu	2	5	2	8	13
113wendy	16	4	6	4	9
3david	9	11	11	9	4
34helen	15	16	7	9	4
46darren	7	6	4	11	16
43chris	21	10	8	3	8
13james	5	13	13	14	15
25ian	9	18	15	12	11
53michael	25	9	20	17	7
108rhys	9	15	19	30	3
33andy	18	14	12	27	10
14natasha	13	8	14	14	22
5mark	12	17	17	20	14
47david	21	12	10	18	24
51rod	13	26	16	19	19
103phil	20	20	22	22	17
54carl	8	22	20	22	23
39grahame	24	21	23	28	25
4javed	26	33	32	7	18
9mark	16	19	18	16	33
10jan	32	24	25	24	28
21andy	29	30	33	13	20
50georgina	21	23	24	33	31
38allan	33	32	31	21	21
30fiona	29	28	28	25	26
52robert	29	28	28	25	26
1nicole	28	25	26	32	29
102ed	27	31	27	29	30
45bruce	18	27	30	31	32

Pace by section

Everyone ran the last third considerably slower than the first 27 miles. The fastest for the last section is roughly equal to brisk walking pace.

	27.2	60	86.5	102.6	145
Top 11	0:09:26	0:12:20	0:13:58	0:15:18	0:15:56
Middle 11	0:10:23	0:14:07	0:16:38	0:18:37	0:17:51
Bottom 11	0:11:41	0:16:04	0:19:54	0:19:32	0:21:04
112fabio	0:08:12	0:09:29	0:12:02	0:13:44	0:15:27
106mich	0:09:03	0:11:48	0:13:06	0:14:54	0:13:55
48pete	0:09:16	0:12:41	0:14:36	0:14:17	0:14:02
2james	0:08:43	0:11:00	0:13:55	0:15:06	0:16:42
55stu	0:08:32	0:12:10	0:12:48	0:15:32	0:17:23
113wendy	0:10:15	0:11:52	0:14:02	0:14:54	0:16:11
3david	0:09:42	0:13:29	0:15:15	0:15:50	0:15:13
34helen	0:10:13	0:13:50	0:14:16	0:15:50	0:15:13
46darren	0:09:29	0:12:26	0:13:44	0:16:31	0:17:37
43chris	0:11:06	0:13:21	0:14:32	0:14:47	0:16:02
13james	0:09:16	0:13:34	0:15:19	0:16:54	0:17:30
25ian	0:09:42	0:14:20	0:15:49	0:16:35	0:16:33
53michael	0:11:30	0:13:21	0:17:35	0:17:27	0:15:30
108rhys	0:09:42	0:13:45	0:17:33	0:21:26	0:15:07
33andy	0:10:42	0:13:38	0:15:17	0:20:07	0:16:32
14natasha	0:09:56	0:12:57	0:15:24	0:16:54	0:19:06
5mark	0:09:45	0:14:12	0:16:50	0:18:04	0:17:27
47david	0:11:06	0:13:34	0:14:57	0:17:31	0:19:46
51rod	0:09:56	0:15:20	0:16:34	0:17:38	0:18:39
103phil	0:10:55	0:14:42	0:17:37	0:19:23	0:17:47
54carl	0:09:34	0:14:49	0:17:35	0:19:23	0:19:42
39grahame	0:11:24	0:14:44	0:17:49	0:20:19	0:20:17
4javed	0:11:39	0:17:39	0:20:52	0:15:20	0:18:24
9mark	0:10:15	0:14:34	0:17:22	0:16:57	0:23:49
10jan	0:12:17	0:15:07	0:18:14	0:19:34	0:21:40
21andy	0:12:01	0:16:41	0:23:19	0:16:50	0:18:51
50georgina	0:11:06	0:14:58	0:18:00	0:22:59	0:21:52
38allan	0:12:45	0:17:06	0:20:36	0:19:12	0:19:03
30fiona	0:12:01	0:16:15	0:20:11	0:19:49	0:20:50
52robert	0:12:01	0:16:15	0:20:11	0:19:49	0:20:50
1nicole	0:11:57	0:15:13	0:19:42	0:22:22	0:21:50
102ed	0:11:50	0:16:48	0:20:02	0:20:26	0:21:50
45bruce	0:10:42	0:16:08	0:20:20	0:21:29	0:22:47

Pace analysis

Halfway by time is roughly 84 miles compared with 72.5 miles by distance.

	27.2	60	86.5	102.6	145
Top 11	4:16	11:01	17:11	21:17	32:33
Middle 11	4:42	12:25	19:46	24:46	37:23
Bottom 11	5:18	14:05	22:52	28:06	42:59
Top 11	13.1%	33.9%	52.8%	65.4%	100.0%
Middle 11	12.6%	33.2%	52.9%	66.2%	100.0%
Bottom 11	12.3%	32.8%	53.2%	65.4%	100.0%
Pro-rata	18.8%	41.4%	59.7%	70.8%	100.0%

Slow down rankings

Ratio of pace in first 27 miles to last 45 miles. The range is massive. Michael wins - he overtook me at the 116 checkpoint and finished 1:40 ahead of me looking very strong.

	Ratio	Rank
53michael	1.35	1
43chris	1.44	2
34helen	1.49	3
38allan	1.49	4
48pete	1.51	5
106mich	1.54	6
33andy	1.55	7
108rhys	1.56	8
3david	1.57	9
21andy	1.57	10
113wendy	1.58	11
4javed	1.58	12
103phil	1.63	13
25ian	1.71	14
30fiona	1.73	15
52robert	1.73	15
10jan	1.77	17
39grahame	1.78	18
47david	1.78	19
5mark	1.79	20
1nicole	1.83	21
102ed	1.84	22
46darren	1.86	23
51rod	1.88	24
112fabio	1.88	25
13james	1.89	26
2james	1.92	27
14natasha	1.92	28
50georgina	1.97	29
55stu	2.04	30
54carl	2.06	31
45bruce	2.13	32
9mark	2.32	33

Grossed up incremental splits

The 27 to 60 miles section is roughly 20% on average so if you took 8 hours to do it, you would get 8 / 20% = 40 hours in the 60 mile column. It shows which part of the race which went well and badly. Phil B had very even splits relative to the field with a bit of a pick up for the last third.

	27.2	60	86.5	102.6	145
112fabio	29:23	25:10	26:55	29:00	31:48
106mich	32:25	31:20	29:17	31:30	28:38
48pete	33:12	33:41	32:39	30:11	28:53
2james	31:13	29:13	31:08	31:53	34:22
55stu	30:34	32:18	28:36	32:48	35:47
113wendy	36:46	31:29	31:23	31:30	33:18
3david	34:47	35:47	34:06	33:28	31:19
34helen	36:38	36:45	31:54	33:28	31:19
46darren	34:00	33:02	30:43	34:54	36:16
43chris	39:47	35:27	32:29	31:14	33:01
13james	33:12	36:01	34:16	35:42	36:01
25ian	34:47	38:03	35:22	35:02	34:05
53michael	41:14	35:27	39:20	36:52	31:54
108rhys	34:47	36:31	39:14	45:16	31:07
33andy	38:20	36:11	34:11	42:31	34:02
14natasha	35:34	34:24	34:26	35:42	39:19
5mark	34:55	37:43	37:38	38:11	35:55
47david	39:47	36:01	33:25	37:00	40:41
51rod	35:34	40:43	37:03	37:16	38:24
103phil	39:08	39:01	39:25	40:57	36:36
54carl	34:15	39:21	39:20	40:57	40:32
39grahame	40:51	39:06	39:50	42:55	41:45
4javed	41:46	46:52	46:40	32:25	37:52
9mark	36:46	38:42	38:49	35:49	49:02
10jan	44:00	40:09	40:46	41:20	44:37
21andy	43:05	44:17	52:09	35:34	38:47
50georgina	39:47	39:45	40:15	48:33	45:00
38allan	45:43	45:25	46:05	40:33	39:13
30fiona	43:05	43:09	45:09	41:52	42:52
52robert	43:05	43:09	45:09	41:52	42:52
1nicole	42:49	40:24	44:03	47:15	44:57
102ed	42:26	44:36	44:49	43:10	44:57
45bruce	38:20	42:49	45:29	45:24	46:54