Saturday, 8 October 2016

Centurion A100 2015 Result analysis

The 2015 Autumn 100 was an unusually fast race with James Elson steaming through to win in 14:35. The conditions were excellent with a warm day section and mild night. Personally I had a decent race and was flying at halfway in 8:47 (on track for 21:30ish). I kept up decent pace until 75 miles (15:05 /  roughly 22 hr pace) but then really struggled through Reading to finish in 22:40. My ankle was bothering me on the last spur but general tiredness was probably the main thing slowing me down. 

I am back in  2016 for another go and might go out a bit steadier this year to avoid the spur 4 crash - particularly the first 25 miles when everyone gets over excited and goes out too quickly.

Firstly I have summarised the race data in a scatter plot with some plain vanilla linear trend lines to join the dots for you. Look up your target time at the bottom and the read off where it crosses the lines on the y-axis. If you finished the race last year, you will appear as a dot on the chart.

I have also included some tables which give an idea of when previous runners passed through the various checkpoints. There is a quite a large range so it might help you to get an idea if you tend to start to quickly or pace things more evenly. 

It is just a guide but might be helpful for crews to predict when you will get to future checkpoints. If you get to half way in 10 hours it, is extremely unlikely you will be finishing in 20 hours but sub 24 hours might be about right.








  20 hr pace
Goring Swyncombe Goring Chain Hill Goring Reading Goring
10% 03:15:04 05:30:04 07:44:24 10:26:47 13:06:32 16:26:46 20:00:00
25% 03:26:56 05:40:44 07:57:04 10:45:28 13:27:54 16:42:17 20:00:00
Average 03:35:18 05:53:44 08:11:32 11:00:38 13:43:14 16:54:03 20:00:00
75% 03:44:36 06:07:01 08:29:35 11:20:27 14:01:54 17:09:13 20:00:00
90% 03:58:38 06:22:13 08:45:33 11:35:22 14:17:00 17:19:27 20:00:00
22 hr pace
Goring Swyncombe Goring Chain Hill Goring Reading Goring
10% 03:34:34 06:03:05 08:30:50 11:29:27 14:25:11 18:05:27 22:00:00
25% 03:47:38 06:14:49 08:44:47 11:50:01 14:48:41 18:22:30 22:00:00
Average 03:56:50 06:29:06 09:00:41 12:06:42 15:05:33 18:35:28 22:00:00
75% 04:07:04 06:43:44 09:20:33 12:28:30 15:26:06 18:52:09 22:00:00
90% 04:22:29 07:00:27 09:38:06 12:44:54 15:42:42 19:03:23 22:00:00
24 hr pace
Goring Swyncombe Goring Chain Hill Goring Reading Goring
10% 03:54:05 06:36:05 09:17:16 12:32:08 15:43:50 19:44:08 24:00:00
25% 04:08:20 06:48:53 09:32:29 12:54:33 16:09:29 20:02:44 24:00:00
Average 04:18:22 07:04:28 09:49:50 13:12:46 16:27:53 20:16:52 24:00:00
75% 04:29:32 07:20:26 10:11:30 13:36:33 16:50:17 20:35:04 24:00:00
90% 04:46:21 07:38:40 10:30:39 13:54:27 17:08:24 20:47:20 24:00:00
26 hr pace
Goring Swyncombe Goring Chain Hill Goring Reading Goring
10% 04:13:35 07:09:06 10:03:43 13:34:49 17:02:29 21:22:48 26:00:00
25% 04:29:01 07:22:57 10:20:12 13:59:06 17:30:16 21:42:58 26:00:00
Average 04:39:54 07:39:51 10:38:59 14:18:50 17:50:12 21:58:16 26:00:00
75% 04:51:59 07:57:08 11:02:28 14:44:36 18:14:29 22:18:00 26:00:00
90% 05:10:13 08:16:53 11:23:13 15:03:59 18:34:06 22:31:16 26:00:00

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