Sunday, 5 August 2018

Kennet and Avon Canal Race 2018

This is a special race for me - I went to university in Bristol, went to school in Thatcham, and now work in London. When I was at university, I wanted to do a bike ride home - it was about 75 miles along the Kennet and Avon canal but never did. Now as a grown up, I was going to run from Bristol to Thatcham and then carry on another 70 miles to London.

My preferred race style is the point to point - it helps with motivation and seems like a more impressive achievement. This race was getting a train from London Paddington to Temple Meads. The start line was outside the station and the finish line was next to Paddington station. Very simple logistics and to explain to others.

I had a last minute panic as I realised I had picked up the wrong race vest - this was a bladder only UD pack and the bladder was at home. I had a last minute trip to Black's to buy a Eurohike budget jobbie. Not ideal but better than no water.

I got the train after work on Thursday - I treated myself to a first class upgrade as I only needed a single. I enjoyed a chilled 90 minute journey which doubled as a last minute recce. Then checked into the Travelodge. Cheap as chips but lacked air conditioning - just a noisy fan. I got everything packed the evening before having learned by lesson at Lon Las.

I headed over to the start line with Chris - my roommate. All quite relaxed - lots of people and things going on. I met a few people including Ian Hammett. I had quite a damp back which I put down to sweat and being not very good at filling the new bladder. We got there with about 20 minutes before start. I picked up a British Waterways key and dropped off my drop bag. Before long, it was time to head off.


I made a conscious decision to go off very slowly - it had worked well at the SDW100 and I didn't want to ruin my race in the first 2 hours. I ran with Allan Rumbles, Kate Jayden, ultra legend Javed Bhatti, and Phil Bradburn as well as my roommate. I bumbled along with people streaming past me. First two miles were a shade under 10 minute mile pace and the third included a walking break. I went for a 25/5 run walk which seemed to suit me at the early stages.

10 miles came up in 1:45 and the first aid station appeared slightly earlier than I expected just after 2 hours. It was a very quick refuel with the bladder being topped up, fanta in the bottles, and some snacks.


My back was soaked again as the bladder leaked. It had retained the majority of the water but not ideal. The next section through Bath was lovely - it was a bit strange going through the centre as people were heading to work. There had been a lot of commuter cyclists on the Bristol to Bath section and this quietened down after Bath. Not much to report - a famous aquaduct after 22 miles and shortly after a cafe which sold posh calippos and coke. An excellent combo.



We stopped again in Bradford-on-Avon. I went for a cloudy lemonade and a San Pelligrino. The sugar and fluids were much needed. We rolled into the 27 miles check point. I had gone through the marathon mark in 4:49 - pretty slow but what was needed today.
Elite atheletes at work


We had picked up Georgina who has done a ridiculous number of races. She did the Centurion GS100 plus 6 other 100s last year. Oh and 200 marathons more than I have. The 27 mile checkpoint report for me is simply "happy". I picked a couple of gels, some sweets and a flask full of Irnbru. I was in 31st place out of 59 at this point and ticking along nicely.

We picked up Phil Bradburn along this stretch before coming to Calne locks - one of the 7 wonders of the British Waterways. There were 29 locks for the boats to navigate - it was a gentle walk for us and a selfie opportunity. The locks are in the top right of the photo.


At the top, there was a cafe which was excellent. I had a can of coke, a fanta, and a sausage roll. I had been on pure sugar so far so thought I should eat something solid. I downed the fanta and put the coke in my flask. It was nice but I hit a low point as I struggled to digest the food. Chris stayed with me a while but eventually pushed on and left me slowly run/walking. He was planning a proper feed at CP3.

I caught up Chris at CP3 as I went for a quick stop - thanks to impromptu crew Lou who was out supporting Phil and Jayden. There was a tap just after the aid station which nearly made me cry it was so joyous. My temperate was a bit high but nothing bad. The tap sorted things out nicely. I also had the bonus of the leaky bladder irrigation system which was keeping things nicely cool - although damp shorts weren't ideal.

Toasty McToastyface
I crossed through 50 miles in about 10:15. I have 10 hours as the benchmark to get to 50 so was a bit outside that and I was pretty happy with it. At some point on the leg, Lou appeared with lemon calippos. She also had one for Andy who had been running with me. This was a "recovery run" after a 350 mile across Sweden. There is always some ahead of you in this game...

Chris had dropped me again but again I caught him at the checkpoint and left before him. The volunteers are amazing and helping get me back on the towpath in super quick time. 60 miles were covered in 12:27. I was due to meet Nathan - a classmate from school who I hadn't seen in nearly 20 years at Kintbury. He was going to buddy run me from Kintbury for a bit. I had hoped to get to 66 miles in 13 hours but got there in 13:45 (7:45pm). I apologised for getting there late but we were on our way after to a wave goodbye to Nathan's family who had come out to cheer.

I probably spoke to Nathan more than on this race than I did in the 7 years at school. We have both found ultrarunning and he had recently done the 100km race to the stones. Chris headed on to get away from our Thatcham chat and he was looking strong. Soon the 72 miles checkpoint appeared of Newbury. It was next to the (now closed down) pub that I used to go drinking at as a teenager. We were halfway to London.

I had been running from bridge to bridge by now having abandoned the 25/5 hours ago. Everytime I saw a bridge, I ran to it and then under/over it. I could walk once I was through

Yet again I caught Chris at the aid station - he was a having a proper fill of quiche and beans. I tried some quiche but couldn't face it. I had my first coffee or the day plus some snacks and headed on. I was getting plenty of calories through gels and sugary drinks. Next up was Thatcham - home for 14 years.

Chris disappeared up the towpath for the final time (he finished in 34:03) - I took an extended walking break and his headlight disappeared up the trail. There was a really drunk man trying to push a bike across the bridge in Thatcham and a few random people on the canal so it was good to have Nathan with me. He said his goodbyes at the Rowbarge / 79 miles. An excellent shift. His knowledge of bridges coming up meant I ran a bit more than I might have done otherwise.

This was the first time I had self-navigated. I had people around me for most of the race and it was fairly obvious. It actually helped keep me alert as I checked off each bridge as I passed it. I had gone light with water at the 72 mile stop and had just run out by the time I got to the 86 mile checkpoint. The checkpoint is just past the Cunning Man pub - I was looking forlornly at the closed pub before we worked out it was the other side. Andy had rejoined me and we stopped for CP6.

This was an excellent stop with Paul Ali refilling my bottles. I made a switch to base layer which caused much amusement in the aid station. Apparently I'm lined up to be July for the KACR calendar. "Fine spirits - Mr July for KACR calendar" is the official observation. I mentioned I was on the sugar train which caused some concern. They got me some rice pudding which hit the spot perfectly. A takeaway coffee in my excellent "light my fire" cup and I was on my way. I was up to 15th place with 86.5 miles done in 19 hours.

I left the aid station alone and made good progress until Fobney lock - there was a bridge over a weir but the obvious main path was a bit further on. I lost a minute or two but nothing serious. The next section was Reading town centre which was thankfully fairly quiet. I turned off my headtorch so as not to agitate any locals with bright lights. I was through the Oracle centre and out the other side fairly quickly. I said hi to Michael Wiggins's buddy runner and was back out the other side. A few random people making their way home but no trouble.

Mile 92 was a big milestone - it was the end of the Kennet and Avon canal and the start of the Thames. This bit is on the Centurion A100 and after a couple of hundred metres, was the Reading aid station - except nobody was home... I hooked up with Ian Kittle and we knocked out the miles. We then passed the Henley aid station. Except this wasn't the TP100 - we had another 3 miles to our checkpoint. It was getting light on this stretch and the headtorches were put away by the time we reached Henley.

There was a big moment crossing the Henley Bridge - the big 100. It was done in just under 23 hours and not too many dramas. Within minutes, it started spotting with rain and then it hammered down. I was soaked in the time it took to get my water proof out. Ian didn't have one so speeded off down the path. Chris had been soaked on the GUCR so warned me to have one from the start and I'm glad I did.

I arrived at the 102.6 checkpoint which was in a pub car park. This was well timed - I changed my damp top and picked up some supplies - some pom bears style crisps and more gels. I asked for rice pudding which they didn't have - I had overnight oats which were excellent. A big thanks to Rich Cranswick and company. "Kit change and he's off!" was the official report. I left with Ian towards London. I chucked the dodgy bladder and switched to hard bottles which I stored in my pack - including a bottle of coke I picked up on the way.

We had a shocker here with navigation. The path goes through a fancy estate and the signs aren't obvious. The aid station team came out to correct us twice - thanks for the patience with us - our heads weren't right after 24 hours on the go.

Ian dropped me on this section and I was starting to fade. I had set a new mileage PB of 103 miles shortly after leaving the aid station. The weather rain stopped and the weather heated up and I was starting to struggle. My feet were soaked but getting warm. This would be a disaster for blisters. I stopped a couple of times to sit on a bench and take my shoes off to attempt to dry them. I normally take spare socks but didn't today - lesson learned.

Marlow had a minor detour as a park was closed this wasn't too big a deal - I assumed the diversion would be signposted but it wasn't. I fired up strava on phone and navigated back on track. I was having a fairly low section as people were out and about and getting on with the days. I even ran past somewhere selling ice cream without buying one - I clearly wasn't feeling well. I think the photo shows the element of crazy that was sneaking in


The next section was familiar which helped and hindered me. I went past another Centurion aid station at Cookham - the 3rd on the Thames but I only had one for the KACR. Not having a crew for day 1 didn't make much difference due to the excellence of the volunteers and having the drop bag fairies but slogging out day 2 on my own was quite tough. This was a 14 mile section which I did mainly on my own and I don't think I stopped at any shops. I bumped into Andy again as I came off the Thames. Apparently he had fallen asleep against a fence for 10 minutes which had helped a lot.

We were now on the Jubilee river. This was possibly the least inspiring river I have ever been on. It was a baking hot gravel path with lots of cyclists coming past. The aid station was fairly early on and was desperately needed. I slumped into a chair and started to sort myself out. I had change of socks and top and the took off the base layer. The volunteers were excellent here and made me a bacon sandwich. They were quite strict with me as a I got a "David - you aren't eating" and "David - you have already had 15 minutes". This is just what I needed. I left with less than 30 miles to go which I was banking on taking me 10 hours. Lou made another appearance to help me out here which was lovely.

Another baking few miles and I made it Slough. This was even crapper than you might expect. Again I wasn't feeling great as I walked past a McDonalds. It was midday and I couldn't face the public and also crossing an extra road. I had hoped to be here for breakfast.


 It was stop start as I had to cross over pedestrian crossings and muppets on bicycles getting in the way. There was one guy who had cut me up on the pavement and he nearly got hit by a car a bit later. It was a close shave and I was disappointed when the car stopped in time. I picked up some Mountain Dew from a shop and then got lost as I turn the wrong way when I came out. I was back on track after some directions for a lovely member of the public. I had a quick chat as I explained what I was doing and they thought I was mad. Slough took a bit longer than I thought to get through - especially with the detour but at last I was on the Slough Arm of the Grand Union canal.


It didn't start well as I had to walk around 3 people drinking cans of Holstein Pils at the entrance to the canal. The Mountain Dew was fighting back and I now had pain in my side. I had a burst of cramp in the abs as I got changed at mile 116 and now 5 miles later, getting rid of the gas was painful. The pain built over the next few miles and dipped a bit after a burp and stretch but slowly came back. I was in quite a lot of pain when I got to the junction onto the main GUCR. The Slough section had hundreds of discarded beer cans and general crap so I hoped it would get better on the main section. I counted off every bridge and mile marker.

I took a celebratory bench stop and only had about 2 miles to the last aid station. I was really struggling to get close to 3mph so I had at least 7 hours to go. I had hoped for a sub 36 hour finish but was looking at 38 hours+. This would be after 8pm. I dragged myself into the last aid station not feeling great. My side pain was either cramp, a pulled muscle, torn muscle, or internal organ failure (hypochondria had set in). I have a recollection of a runner sprinting past topless and flew past me. I hadn't seen this person before and it seemed like they were cheating at this... They had a race number on too...

I collapsed on a grass bank by the aid station for a lie down and maybe a sleep. I put my cap over my face and had a rest. There was a lovely lady who came to look after me. I asked for something savoury and she produced some quiche and a cup of tea. This was lovely. I had arrived at 14:30 and have given myself 30 minutes to rest up. I had a chat with Lindley and a few other and felt better. I did a couple of sit ups to test my abs and they felt fine so I could cross torn/pulled abs off the list.

I exited the aid station at 14:48 and only had 17 miles to go. Yes just a half marathon a bit to go. I can knock this off in 2 hours on a good day. It was going to be more like 6 hours today with 33 hours in my legs... After a mile or two, the famous left turn appeared. This is famous from the GUCR and represents the last piece of navigation for the day. Just stay on the right side of the canal... I had seen a few runners near the aid station but was on my own now. I kept ticking off the miles. Some were even below 20 minutes.



The pain in my side was getting quite bad now - it helped to stretch which I did every mile or so. I even gave myself 15 breath's worth of eyes closed time at one point. I bumped into Lou again with 6 miles to go. She gave me a caffeine bullet - a sweet with caffeine and electrolytes. It was a refreshing minty taste and Lou said it would give me a lift in 20 minutes or so. I was willing to take anything at this point. It was nearly 6pm or so by now...

Another benchmark was passed. I would have needed a sub 36 finish to get into Sparathlon but the actual criteria is 220km or more in less than 36 hours and I passed the 220km mark in about 35:40 or so.

This section of the canal is full of rubbish including sofas, broken bikes, cans, and general crap. One of the highlights though was a curry factory which smelled amazing. Shortly after was a sewage works though. I could start to see things like Wembley and the Shard coming into view. For the first time in hours, I saw someone behind me. It looked like two runners - I really didn't want to lose a place now.

I took the maverick idea to run. I had been running on and off until Slough but hadn't for a few hours. To me surpise, my side hurt less when I ran so I decided to run. I picked up the pace and ran for a minute and then walked for a bit. I kept this up and started to run a bit more. Mile 143 was 15:41 it felt really quick. Mile 144 was 14:59! I could also see the countdown to Paddington on the signposts.

I really picked up the pace towards the end (caffeine bullet effect?) and could feel the end coming. It was getting busier towards the end and I knew I was almost there. The last mile or so had some ridiculous bridges one of which felt like climbing over the pyramids of giza. I kept thinking I was lost but kept plodding.  I thought I had taken the wrong canal but eventually the famous gantry arrived. I jogged over the line and did the traditional finish line press ups...




The finish crew were brilliant. They helped me get changed with a bit of beach towel banter. Stupidly, I had only packed skinny jeans and a tshirt - I will bring a hoodie next time as you get cold quickly when you finish. Pam Storey then did a sales pitch on the 24 hours of Crawley but I wasn't mad on signing up to another race just yet. They were also disappointed I wasn't doing the Leeds Liverpool canal race 4 weeks later...

I finished in 37:43 for 18th / 33 finishers and 59 starters. My longest run by 43 miles, and longest time awake by some distance (4:45 Friday - 22:30 Saturday). I celebrated by having an upper crust baguette and sparkling water on the train home. My very kind neighbour gave me a lift for the half mile back from the station...


So thanks again to the volunteers. Early on they provided the F1 style pits stops to get me back on the road and later on it was army field hospital to get me back in battle...


Saturday, 17 March 2018

UTMB 2020 - moving the goalposts

I've been trying to get into the UTMB for a few years now. In 2015, I only had 8 points which would have been good enough for all previous years until they put it up to 9 that year. I have made the required points for the last two years but have been unlucky in the ballot twice. If I get the points this year, I will be in automatically as two-time losers automatically get in.

The points have been at 15 (9 old points) for the last couple of years and look to be the same for 2020. However a somewhat pretentiously titled "NEW CLASSIFICATION OF TRAIL-RUNNING" article  http://www.i-tra.org/?id=193 on the ITRA has moved the goalposts somewhat. They have changed the categories for how many points you get for each race.

THIS IS ONLY FOR 2019 RACES / 2020 UTMB ONWARDS.


At present, a 100 miler with more than 9,000 feet of climbing scores 6 points (e.g NDW100 and SDW100) and a 50 miler with more than 3,000 feet of climbing would now be 4 points (e.g. NDW50 and SDW100)

The SDW100 is 191km effort equivalent (160k + 3,100 climbing), and NDW100 is (167km + 3,300m climbing) 200km so will now be 5 points. The NDW50 is 100 points so will be a 3 pointer. Previously, completing these 3 races would have given you 16 points - more than enough but now would be 2 points short for 2020 UTMB.

Hopefully UTMB will lower the required points given that the ITRA points criteria have changed. We will find out next year. ...

Monday, 1 January 2018

West Highland Way Pace Analysis

After I posted my 100 mile pace analysis, Andy Cole mentioned the West Highland Way had some good stats. I have put them through the mixer to see how they compare with the 100 mile dataset. The WHW is "only" 95 miles but the Scottish terrain more than makes up for the slightly shorter distance.

I took an average of the splits at each aid station and divided by the average total time. I scaled the mileage by 0.95 to make it scale to 100.  The WHW is almost exactly in line with the Rocky Racoon and Autumn 100. The Javelina 100 is slightly above which I have put down to the scorching hot day and more benign night which affects pacing.

I wanted to test my 10 hours at halfway for 24 hour finish. There isn't an aid station at 47.5 miles so I interpolated between the 42 and 51 mile times. The trend line isn't too far off the 10/24 rule of thumb.



I have also calculated the average splits for a given finish time. They are grouped to the nearest hour so there should be enough to form an average. There is quite a big range but this an AVERAGE.

Target Balmaha Rowardennan Beinglas Farm Auchtertyre Bridge of Orchy Glencoe Ski Centre Kinlochleven Lundarva
14:00 2:21 3:24 5:34 6:57 8:14 9:50 11:33 12:37
15:00 2:23 3:30 5:46 7:16 8:43 10:30 12:23 13:32
16:00 2:41 3:58 6:28 8:06 9:34 11:29 13:23 14:37
17:00 2:44 4:03 6:41 8:21 9:54 11:52 14:01 15:52
18:00 2:50 4:13 7:04 8:51 10:33 12:45 14:58 16:22
19:00 2:58 4:25 7:21 9:14 11:01 13:15 15:38 17:28
20:00 3:07 4:38 7:44 9:46 11:41 14:01 16:36 18:39
21:00 3:11 4:44 7:56 10:03 12:05 14:36 17:21 19:11
22:00 3:22 5:01 8:24 10:36 12:45 15:19 18:08 20:21
23:00 3:25 5:07 8:39 10:57 13:12 15:52 18:52 21:14
24:00 3:33 5:19 8:59 11:21 13:42 16:30 19:39 22:16
25:00 3:37 5:24 9:06 11:33 14:03 16:57 20:12 22:43
26:00 3:44 5:36 9:32 12:04 14:35 17:31 20:54 23:48
27:00 3:45 5:39 9:34 12:11 14:47 17:51 21:26 24:52
28:00 3:48 5:45 9:49 12:29 15:14 18:23 22:15 25:43
29:00 3:55 5:55 10:06 12:55 15:45 19:01 23:06 26:48
30:00 4:00 6:05 10:24 13:13 16:06 19:28 23:52 27:42
31:00 4:02 6:08 10:30 13:26 16:22 19:52 24:23 28:44
32:00 4:01 6:11 10:43 13:45 16:46 20:28 25:24 29:23
33:00 4:13 6:24 11:00 14:10 17:14 21:02 26:11 30:41
34:00 4:11 6:25 11:04 14:11 17:15 21:20 26:56 31:08
35:00 4:24 6:55 11:54 15:18 18:21 22:44 28:02 31:55

I also looked at the "slowing down factor". The fastest finishers slowed down the least with the front runners taking 120% of time to complete the second half and the tail of the field taking more than 150%. The average is 138% (very close to a 10/24 split...)
I had a look at how the multipliers vary by age and gender. Conventional wisdom suggests that older runners are more experienced and pace more evenly. Also women are less macho so won't get pulled into racing off to quickly.

However looking at the data rather stereotypes gives a different answer. The groups are fairly even with the 50+ Women being the "worst" at pacing and under 40s men being the second "best" but not a lot in it.

Age \ Gender F M All
OPEN 2.34 2.38 2.37
V40 2.38 2.36 2.37
V50 & V60 2.40 2.40 2.40
All 2.37 2.38 2.38

All the categories are fairly similar though and no real statistical difference. However might be a bit of Ecological fallacy going on here.

But there is still a lot of variation...

Sunday, 31 December 2017

Lon Las Ultra (DNF at Dollegellau)

Here is my race race report from my attempt at Lon Las. If you want to advice on how to finish the race, I can recommend Ronnie Staton's blog http://www.ronniestaton.coach/ronnies-blog/ and Karl Shields's blog http://karlsultraramblings.blogspot.co.uk/2017/10/lon-las-cymru-2017.html

You can watch an action replay here: http://www.racedrone.net/events/playback/lon-las-cymru . The names seem to have changed - I am number 11 (the full start list is here Lon Las Runners).

My attempt was rather amateur in comparison but I certainly have learnt a lot from it. My blog is mainly to help remember things for a crack at 2019. If it helps, entertains, or amuses you too, that is bonus. It will be quite long and rambling in places - you have been warned.

I have written about my build up here: http://76thmile.blogspot.co.uk/2017/10/lon-las-ultra-setting-scene.html

Travel and pre-race admin

I travelled down with Owen on Wednesday afternoon. We got the 13:10 from Euston with a change at Chester.  Virgin trains has been quoting an outrageous £94 for a single to Holyhead but I managed to get a single to Chester in the sales for £11 and an advance single from Chester for £12.50.

I bought a copy of Mimi Anderson's new book but was struggling with concentrating so switched to listening to the Bad Boy Running podcast which is amusing and suitably low brow. I was catching up with old episodes and listened to the Monarch's Way special ( http://badboyrunningpodcast.com/ep54-special-lee-stuart-evans-on-how-to-run-615-miles). About 350 miles more than I needed to run...

We get off the train at Holyhead and headed into to our hotel. We got slightly lost on the way there and bumped into Karl Shields - he assumed we knew the way which was a mistake. We eventually found the hotel and checked in. In reception we met Mark Cockbain and the Grim Sweeper (Peter).

We used the opportunity to collect race trackers which was all we needed as Mark had sent out the numbers and maps beforehand. The official registration took place in a nearby pub - I decided to give this a miss as the race would be hard enough without a hangover.

The Travelodge was just over the road from an ASDA. I was very tempted to get dinner from the McDonald's next door but settled for a cheese pasta salad and all-day breakfast sandwich. I picked up a bottle of Elvis Juice - more like "Building Societian" rather than going full "Banks method". I also picked up a few extra snacks for the race. I also picked up a pack of wheely bin liners. My original bin bag (mandatory kit) seemed a bit lightweight and if things went badly wrong, the bin liner would have been very helpful.

The alarm was set for 5am and I had a couple of Trek bars and a cup of coffee. I had a shower and lounged around in bed I faffed a lot with my kit and suddenly it was 6.45 and I could see everyone heading off to the start. I got my kit together and was outside the hotel at 6:50. As I headed down the road, I realised I had left my phone in the room. I got an extra key cut to the room and went back and couldn't find it. Then Owen went and had a look and found it. By now it was 7:03 and we were still quite far from the start line. We got to the dockside at 7:15 and missed the starting photos and everyone was off down the road.
We gave Mark a call and he came and collected our drop bags and wished us well. We then took a wrong turn leaving the port and Mark shouted at us and we made it back on course. He said we woud soon catch up but I had visions of not seeing anyone for the rest of the race. We took the left turn eventually rather than heading down the A5.
Start photo - we were still in the hotel
We were soon off Holy Island and next to the A5. We met a group of 3 early morning runners who joked that we must have got lost as everyone was miles ahead of us. It was a lovely morning and we stopped for a few photos.

Penrhos Beach
After about 4 miles, it was 8am and we had made up the 17 minute handicap. The route peels off the A5 and switches to country lanes. We went past RAF Valley and Anglesey Airport after 7 miles. The RAF kindly put on a flying display with fighter jets taking off for their sorties. 
 There is a SPAR just off the route here but we had plenty of provisions so didn't need it. Shortly after here we saw a couple of hi-viz clad runners which was a good sign. We moved out of last place as we caught Byron Cook and David Wright. We had covered 7 miles in 75 minutes or so. Half marathon was covered in 2:18. Possibly a bit on the quick side as we had passed quite a few people.
The first 20 miles was fuelled by a couple of gels and a rum & raisin Ritter Sport bar. The are 100 grams and approximately 500 calories. As an added bonus, they are made up of 16 squares so I had 4 squares every 30 minutes during my walking break. I was using a 25/5 run/walk strategy.

First stop was Llangaffo - a post office and shop. The shopkeeper had clearly had several runners through before and wasn't surprises by my selection. I bought a 500ml bottle of Dr Pepper and a Mars Bar. I was keeping up with the calories. A couple of runners arrived just behind me and I think went for Magnums - there can't have been many sold that month. 
The mainland awaits
Shortly after leaving Llangaffo, we missed a left turn. The sign wasn't obvious and the Route 8 sign was sideways on. We took the next left but this added another half mile / 6 minutes to the route. Judging by the trackers, at least one other runner made this mistake.
Google street view photo of the junction - can you see the sign?
The next highlight was passing through Llanfairpwllgwyngyllgogerychwyrndrobwllllantysiliogogogoch or Llanfair PG as it is known to the locals. We made the correct decision at the junction unlike James McNamee who tried to take the shorter route across the Britannia bridge instead. This was deemed to be excessively aggressive cornering and he was sent back onto the correct route.

The next pit stop was at the Shell garage. I went for Irnbru and Pom bears. Pom bears are 95 calories and full of salt so a good choice. Combined with the 200 calories in the Irnbru, this was another hour of energy. I was working on getting 250-300 calories per hour. I suspect in previous races, I had tried to take in a lot more than this (too much in hindsight) due to the bull in a china aid station approach to fueling.

There was also a Waitrose over the road where at least on runner took advantage of the free coffee.



Entering CP1 - Karen Webber photo

The first major milestone was crossed - the Menai Bridge. I had now crossed the whole of Anglesey and had started making progress across mainland Wales. This was also the site of the first aid station. I use aid station in the loosest sense of the word. All but one of my ultras have been the Centurion series. The aid station is a cross between an F1 pit-stop, the Virgin Upper Class lounge, and an audition for bake-off. This was a water stop with a couple of jerry cans and nothing else. However it was a chance to catch up with Lindley and Karen. After weathering the initial stick for not making it on time to the start, it was a chance to find out how everyone else was getting on. I had joked that by missing the start, I wouldn't see Paul Ali but Lindley took great glee in letting me know he had got a bit lost. Apparently Ali's mate had just texted the word "tw@t". 

We were sitting mid pack as it turns out despite giving away the 17 minute headstart.  Chris Yeo came past dressed impeccably with a very quick stop. It turns out we had two of the three Monarch's Way starters this year. We were just missing Lee-Stuart Evans who was busy at the Obstacle Course Racing world championships so couldn't attend. Lindley told a few anecdotes about Lee-Stuart's Monarch's attempt while we filled our water bottles. 

Chris Yeo - ultrarunning legend
Shortly after CP1, Paul Ali came past us. Here is a selfie documenting that I was ahead of him. 

PaulAli trailing at the 32 mile mark

Next major stop was Caernarfon castle at mile 39. There was a choice of ASDA and Morrisons. The smart choice was the Morrisons as it has a cafe which serves all-day breakfast. We went for the ASDA which was marginally less of a detour. I picked up Welsh cakes, walkers salt & vinegar crisps and a bottle of coke.

I took a photo outside the Castle as it appears in Go-Jetters - a cartoon my kids watch. As we were leaving Caernarfon, we came across Martin Ilott who had been caught in Lon Las one way system.


The short way is to the East of the Castle....
Elite nutrition and nose picking technique
We were caught off guard by paparazzi photographer Gordon Hughes who took some photos as we went past. I think he was the only supporter we saw all day.

The 20 miles or so to Criceith were fairly uneventful. There was a pack of runners spread over a few miles. I would get overtaken during walking breaks but catch up a few every so often. I got to Criceith without using a headtorch which was a nice bonus.

Karen Webber Photo - Checkpoint 2
I managed to get to Criceith - the 60 mile point and second checkpoint. It didn't have the broken bottles of the first stop and technically was under cover. And it has a bench - what luxury!
Checkpoint 2 - Google streetview

I had planned poorly on this stop. I knew there was chip shop but it was about a 10 minute walk from the stop. I picked up sausage and chips for dinner as well as cod and chips for Karl. This tacked on another mile or so to the race. On the way back to checkpoint it started raining and hugged the chips to keep warm. My wet weather kit was in my bag so I scuttled back. I sat down to eat my chips - it was the first time I had sat down since Holyhead.

I was on my way after an hour or so. Not very good pitstop but at least I had eaten.

Coming out of Cricieth, the weather took a turn for the worse. It was getting windy and pouring with rain. The maps and notes were tucked away so they didn't disintegrate. However this meant we missed a turn. Here is a picture of it. Can you see the Route 8 sign? It is quite hard to see in daytime - let alone in the wet and dark. This added on a bonus 2 miles / 40 minutes down a fairly sketchy busy road. It would have been even more if someone following the race hadn't driven out to point us back on our way. 
This was quite a low point in the race. The combination of the slow pit stop and detour meant I had covered about 3 race miles (6 actual) in 3 hours and had eaten into the buffer for sleeping later in the race.

**** From here onwards was written in December. I had hit publish back at the beginning of November and it didn't save properly. I couldn't face rewriting it again ***

Things picked up as we met up with 3 other people coming into Porthmadog (68 miles). It was great to have company after several hours. Martin, Jon Strong, and another runner formed a slow moving peleton with Owen and me. Soon enough we came upon a massive Tescos. Luckily it was still open. We got there at about 10.40 - the staff were getting ready to close up when 5 strange men with head torches walked in. We were greeted with "can we help you?" - which we took to as an opportunity to find out where things were. As we paid for things, we had a chat with the staff. They were quite surprised at our antics. They also confirmed that there definitely wouldn't be anything open between here and Barmouth (about 25 miles) - even that would probably still be shut.

I picked up coca-cola, McCoy, and Starbucks latte cans. There was no hot coffee and the Starbucks was an excellent alternative. A decent 150-200 calories and plenty of caffeine. They are aren't exactly a Caffiene Bullet but were good at 11pm.

There were some easy miles out of Porthmadog before hitting the first proper hills of the route near mile 74. This was quite enjoyable as it took my mind off things. It was absolutely hammering it down with some serious wind. About 2 miles before the 80 mile checkpoint, we caught up with Chris. He had flown in from Singapore for the race so it must have been quite a shock for him. He had a plastic poncho over the top of his kit which was quite a good idea.

Soon enough we arrived at the 80 mile "aid station" where Lindley and Maxine were handing out water. We filled our bottles from the Jerry can in the back of Lindley's pick up truck. The aid station was Lindley's vehicle. There was a plastic box packed full of treats and coke but this was only for DNFers. Apparently this was a coincidence and not mind games...
Another up and over a hill and we were into Llanaber and Barmouth. I'm sure this is a lovely place in Summer but it was absolutely disgusting at 4am. The wind and rain was coming in from the sea. I was hoping this would be a lovely jog along the seafront with a sunrise was more like being in a hurricane. 

The worst part was the crossing of the estuary on an elevated railway crossing. I ran this as fast as I could to get out of the weather.

It was nothing like this
There was the small matter of 9 miles now to get the Dolgellau checkpoint. The weather didn't abate and my waterproof had failed and I was now soaked through and starting to struggle. Owen had picked up nasty shin splints and an achilles problem and Jon was hobbling along. We battle along with a few stops to use the public toilets on the section. Another minor detour and we almost there.

I called it a day at Dollegellau. I was physically ok but couldn't see myself getting through another 153 miles. I didn't have good kit and I needed to get another 50 miles to Rhayader in the terrible conditions. A bit of lame drop out in hindsight.
DNF selfie
My parents gave me a lift as they live near Glasbury (mile 175). We drove along the course and it was absolutely shocking conditions with knee deep flooding on some sections. I stayed at my parents on the Friday night and was lucky enough to see Ronnie come past on his way to second place. He prepared well for the race and fully deserved to finish.


In the end there were 6 finishers out of 27. Ironically I was in about 8th place (11th or so to drop) when I dropped and Karl Shields was at Dollgellau when I dropped. He gave me the fiver he owed me for dinner before heading on his way. It wasn't a bad performance to do 102 miles unsupported (100 miles in 23:47) in terrible conditions (it is Wales so kind of expected) but not good enough to finish.

The race is hard but fair. There were only 6 finishers out 27 with quite possibly one of the best DNF lists of any race ever seen in the UK. I have 7 finishes at the 100 mile distance and there were Spine, Spartathlon , UTMB, Thames Ring finishers on the DNF list too. The 6 finishers can be very proud of what they achieved.

Hopefully I will be back in 2019 and get all the way to Cardiff...

Thanks to all the people working on the event. It is largely a solitary event but the support is there if you need it. There was some good banter from Karen and Lindley - particularly at Bangor. I was too fast to see the Grim Sweeper and not good enough to see Richard in Rhayder.

21 months of training to go...
Mark Cockbain / Karl Shields


Saturday, 16 December 2017

Using your 5km time to predict 100 mile finish times - Part 2



A extension to this post http://76thmile.blogspot.co.uk/2017/12/using-your-5km-time-to-predict-your-100.html was to combine it with this one http://76thmile.blogspot.co.uk/2017/02/hardest-itra-races-why-killians-2241.html to give these tables.

Some of the predicted finish times are greater than the cut-off times for the race. This also completely spurious based on the multipliers involves (20 minutes vs over two days in some cases). The multiplier was about 10% higher for women based on a spuriously small sample but I have used this to create the two tables.

I would be interested to see how accurate (or not) they are.

Race \ 5km PB (Men) 17:00    18:00     19:00     20:00     21:00     22:30     24:30    
Centurion Autumn 100 18:44 19:51 20:57 22:03 23:09 24:48 27:01
Brazos Bend 100 - 100M 18:49 19:56 21:02 22:09 23:15 24:55 27:08
Centurion Thames Path 100 18:52 19:58 21:05 22:12 23:18 24:58 27:11
Rocky Raccoon - 100 Mile 18:52 19:58 21:05 22:12 23:18 24:58 27:11
Centurion South Downs Way 100 19:31 20:40 21:49 22:58 24:07 25:51 28:08
Javelina Jundred - 100 Miles 20:09 21:20 22:31 23:42 24:53 26:40 29:02
West Highland Way Race 20:19 21:30 22:42 23:54 25:05 26:53 29:16
Oman Desert Marathon 20:53 22:07 23:21 24:34 25:48 27:39 30:06
Centurion North Downs Way 100 21:16 22:31 23:46 25:01 26:16 28:08 30:38
White Rose Ultra - 100 Mile 22:15 23:34 24:52 26:11 27:29 29:27 32:04
Cotswold Way Century-100 Miles 22:25 23:44 25:03 26:22 27:41 29:40 32:18
Thunder Rock 23:37 25:00 26:23 27:47 29:10 31:15 34:02
Western States Endurance Run 23:42 25:05 26:29 27:53 29:16 31:22 34:09
Pinhoti 100 - Pinhoti 100 Miles 24:06 25:32 26:57 28:22 29:47 31:55 34:45
Chimera 100 - Chimera 100 Miles 24:11 25:37 27:02 28:28 29:53 32:01 34:52
Hardmoors - 110 Miles 24:26 25:53 27:19 28:45 30:11 32:21 35:13
Zion - 100 Mile 24:31 25:58 27:24 28:51 30:18 32:27 35:21
Leadville Trail 100 Run 25:08 26:37 28:06 29:35 31:03 33:17 36:14
Cascade Crest 100 Mile 26:30 28:04 29:37 31:11 32:44 35:05 38:12
Grindstone 100 26:30 28:04 29:37 31:11 32:44 35:05 38:12
Lakeland - Lakeland 100 26:43 28:17 29:51 31:25 33:00 35:21 38:30
Run Rabbit Run 100 26:57 28:33 30:08 31:43 33:18 35:41 38:51
Bear 100 27:00 28:35 30:11 31:46 33:21 35:44 38:55
Arc Of Attrition 100 Mile 27:20 28:56 30:33 32:09 33:46 36:10 39:23
Bighorn Trail Run - 100M 27:32 29:09 30:47 32:24 34:01 36:27 39:41
100 Miles Of Istria - 100 Miles 27:42 29:20 30:58 32:35 34:13 36:40 39:55
Le Marathon Des Sables 29:43 31:28 33:13 34:58 36:43 39:21 42:50
Hurt 100 Mile Endurance Run 30:33 32:21 34:09 35:57 37:44 40:26 44:02
Ultra-Trail Mt. Fuji - Utmf 31:13 33:03 34:53 36:43 38:33 41:19 44:59
100 Miles Sud De France 32:37 34:32 36:27 38:22 40:17 43:10 47:00
Utmb® 33:17 35:14 37:11 39:09 41:06 44:03 47:58
Ehunmilak Ultra-Trail® 33:54 35:53 37:53 39:53 41:52 44:52 48:51
Le Grand Raid De La Réunion 36:22 38:31 40:39 42:48 44:56 48:09 52:25
Hardrock 100 Endurance Run 36:40 38:49 40:59 43:08 45:17 48:31 52:50
Montane Spine Challenger 37:22 39:34 41:46 43:57 46:09 49:27 53:51
Andorra Ronda Dels Cims 43:09 45:41 48:13 50:46 53:18 57:06 62:11


Race \ 5km PB (Women) 17:00    18:00    19:00    20:00    21:00    22:30    24:30    
Centurion Autumn 100 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:30 24:31
Brazos Bend 100 - 100M 17:05 18:05 19:05 20:06 21:06 22:36 24:37
Centurion Thames Path 100 17:07 18:07 19:08 20:08 21:09 22:39 24:40
Rocky Raccoon - 100 Mile 17:07 18:07 19:08 20:08 21:09 22:39 24:40
Centurion South Downs Way 100 17:43 18:46 19:48 20:51 21:53 23:27 25:32
Javelina Jundred - 100 Miles 18:17 19:21 20:26 21:30 22:35 24:12 26:21
West Highland Way Race 18:26 19:31 20:36 21:41 22:46 24:24 26:34
Oman Desert Marathon 18:57 20:04 21:11 22:18 23:25 25:05 27:19
Centurion North Downs Way 100 19:17 20:25 21:34 22:42 23:50 25:32 27:48
White Rose Ultra - 100 Mile 20:11 21:23 22:34 23:45 24:56 26:43 29:06
Cotswold Way Century-100 Miles 20:20 21:32 22:44 23:56 25:08 26:55 29:19
Thunder Rock 21:26 22:41 23:57 25:12 26:28 28:22 30:53
Western States Endurance Run 21:30 22:46 24:02 25:18 26:34 28:28 30:59
Pinhoti 100 - Pinhoti 100 Miles 21:53 23:10 24:27 25:44 27:01 28:57 31:32
Chimera 100 - Chimera 100 Miles 21:57 23:15 24:32 25:50 27:07 29:03 31:38
Hardmoors - 110 Miles 22:11 23:29 24:47 26:05 27:24 29:21 31:58
Zion - 100 Mile 22:15 23:34 24:52 26:11 27:29 29:27 32:04
Leadville Trail 100 Run 22:49 24:09 25:30 26:50 28:11 30:12 32:53
Cascade Crest 100 Mile 24:03 25:28 26:53 28:18 29:43 31:50 34:40
Grindstone 100 24:03 25:28 26:53 28:18 29:43 31:50 34:40
Lakeland - Lakeland 100 24:14 25:40 27:05 28:31 29:56 32:05 34:56
Run Rabbit Run 100 24:28 25:54 27:20 28:47 30:13 32:23 35:15
Bear 100 24:30 25:56 27:23 28:49 30:16 32:26 35:19
Arc Of Attrition 100 Mile 24:48 26:15 27:43 29:11 30:38 32:49 35:45
Bighorn Trail Run - 100M 24:59 26:27 27:56 29:24 30:52 33:04 36:01
100 Miles Of Istria - 100 Miles 25:08 26:37 28:06 29:34 31:03 33:16 36:14
Le Marathon Des Sables 26:58 28:34 30:09 31:44 33:19 35:42 38:52
Hurt 100 Mile Endurance Run 27:43 29:21 30:59 32:37 34:15 36:42 39:57
Ultra-Trail Mt. Fuji - Utmf 28:19 29:59 31:39 33:19 34:59 37:29 40:49
100 Miles Sud De France 29:36 31:20 33:05 34:49 36:34 39:10 42:39
Utmb® 30:12 31:58 33:45 35:31 37:18 39:58 43:31
Ehunmilak Ultra-Trail® 30:45 32:34 34:23 36:11 38:00 40:43 44:20
Le Grand Raid De La Réunion 33:00 34:57 36:53 38:50 40:46 43:41 47:34
Hardrock 100 Endurance Run 33:16 35:13 37:11 39:08 41:06 44:02 47:57
Montane Spine Challenger 33:54 35:54 37:54 39:53 41:53 44:53 48:52
Andorra Ronda Dels Cims 39:09 41:27 43:45 46:04 48:22 51:49 56:26